Stampede Blue
Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
The Colts’ defense regressed in Week 2, giving up four touchdowns to the Broncos. That worked out to the 4th-most Points per Drive allowed. Denver kept moving the chains, piling up 22 first downs and posting the 3rd-best Drive Success Rate of the week.
Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%The 10th-most yards per drive isn’t as bad as the 4th-worst points per drive. So, I guess the Colts were better at limiting yards than they were points. This is confirmed by the 6.0 yards per play carrying an average EPA of 0.23, the 5th-highest allowed by any defense.
They just couldn’t stop Miami from moving the chains and finishing drives in the end zone. We were lucky to walk away with a “W.” After the first 2 games the Colts defense has dropped to 19th by PPD.
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/YdMiami didn’t pile up yards through the air (11th fewest), but Bo Nix still produced 0.38 EPA per play, making him the 5th-most efficient QB of the week. He paired the 4th-highest play conversion rate with the 5th-highest completion rate. He wasn’t flashy — he simply kept moving the chains, and the Colts defense had few answers.
That effort knocked Indy down to #8 in passing defense after two weeks.
Mouseover definitions: wgt RSR, adj RSR, YDS, CAR, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, EPA/c, Against the run, the Colts were better — but still far from good. Their 19th-ranked weighted Rush Success Rate is nothing to write home about. Miami picked up 7 first downs and a TD on 22 carries, giving them the 7th-best rushing play conversion rate of the week.
That 19th rank is mirrored in their first 2 week cumulative totals.
The defense was sub-par in both phases, and unless that changes, it’s hard to expect many more last-minute wins.
