Stampede Blue
Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
Yep. Points are what ultimately matter, but you score points by moving the ball — and tracking first downs is one of the best ways to measure that. I like to convert it into a percentage of total series, which gives you Drive Success Rate (DSR). Mostly, I do it because it takes something simple and makes it sound more complicated, but either way, whether you look at 27 first downs or an 87.1% DSR, the message is the same: the Colts’ offense had no trouble moving the ball against the Dolphins.
I’d have liked to trade a few of those field goals for touchdowns, but I’m not going to complain about 400+ yards of offense and six red-zone trips. What I wanted was consistency — and that’s exactly what I got.
Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%Even though Buffalo, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh each outscored the Colts, Indy did it on fewer drives — finishing Week 1 with the most points per drive in the league, along with the No. 1 Drive Success Rate (DSR). Their yards per play weren’t as eye-popping (ninth overall), but ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in total success rate shows they made the most of every yard.
The one negative: despite having the second-shortest average distance to gain on third down, the offense converted <50% of those third downs — just the 19th-best rate. In other words, they were strong on first and second down but poor on third — and that’s a problem if it continues. They made up for it on 4th down a few times and they had the 7th most explosive yards of any team, so “no harm no foul” I guess.
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/YdUnlike my QB stats article, I’m not including designed QB runs here, so the numbers look a bit different. Daniel Jones debuted in Indy with the seventh-best EPA per dropback and the fourth-best passing success rate. He also posted the third-best conversion rate and the fourth-highest net yards per dropback.
That production was fueled by a ridiculous 75.9% completion rate — 5.4% above expectations. Add in more than 100 yards in explosive plays and zero turnovers, and it’s easy to...
