Daily Norseman
It’s that time of year- time for my annual season prediction for the Minnesota Vikings. I completed predictions for each of the NFC North teams as well, but in this piece I’ll take a deep dive into the key factors that will impact the Vikings’ season this year compared to last and ultimately my prediction for the Vikings’ season record.
One thing you never find attached to any pundit’s predictions is their track record, except this one. Predicting outcomes of football games and seasons is far from an exact science, but there are some key factors that can and do impact a team’s season, some of which are not immediately obvious. Nevertheless, there are so many interrelated variables involved that perfection is impossible. My own track record is far from perfect, but since I started using my current formula I’ve at least been closer than the over/under total two of the last three seasons- 2023 being way off due to Kirk Cousins going down mid-season. In any case, this will be my tenth prediction over the past eleven seasons, having abandoned any prediction in 2016 after Teddy Bridgewater went down just prior to the start of the season. Here are the results:
Prediction: 10-6. Actual: 11-5. Preseason over/under: 7.5
No prediction after Bridgewater went down. Acutal: 8-8. Preseason over/under: 9.5 (pre-Bridgewater injury).
Prediction: 12-4. Actual: 13-3. Preseason over/under: 8.5
Prediction: 13-3. Actual: 8-7-1. Preseason over/under: 10
Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 10-6. Preseason over/under: 9.
Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 7-9. Preseason over/under: 8.5 (March)
Prediction: 13-4. Actual: 8-9. Preseason over/under: 9.
Prediction: 12-5. Actual: 13-4. Preseason over/under: 9.5.
Prediction: 11-6. Actual: 7-10. Preseason over/under: 8.5.
Prediction: 10-7. Actual: 14-3. Preseason over/under: 6.5.
As I mentioned above, the 2023 Vikings’ season was heavily impacted by the loss of Kirk Cousins mid-season, and losing Justin Jefferson for roughly half the season as well.
My 2024 prediction was significantly (3.5 games) higher than the over/under win total for the Vikings this time last season, but actually proved to be even more significantly lower than the actual outcome. Looking at how I evaluated the key factors last year, I underestimated Sam Darnold a bit- I figured him to be the equivalent of the quarterbacking the Vikings had in 2023 (i.e. Cousins, Dobbs, Mullens, Hall) when he turned out better than that. Most other pundits were more pessimistic about Darnold, which led to lower win predictions for the Vikings. And while I had a pretty significant (+3 game) adjustment for luck and turnovers last season, expecting a favorable reversion to the mean on both counts, the actual results swung even more positive than that. Lastly, I actually had a -1 game adjustment for strength of schedule, based on the Vikings supposedly having a more difficult schedule thant the previous season based on preseason over/under win totals of opponents, but that turned out to be...
