Battle Red Blog
We are breaking out the charts and graphs
In my last value of things I casually mentioned that I thought Bobby Slowik’s run as offensive coordinator should come to an end. An accusation of that sort shouldn’t just hang in the wind too long. An assertion like that deserves some evidence and it is time to bust out some evidence. Of course, a case like this likely won’t be made by itself in this one article, but let’s lay the groundwork.
I mentioned a statistic last time that deserves some exploration. Teams that win usually score efficiently. When they get inside the red zone they score six. This can be seen when we look at the yards per point. We looked at things strictly from the playoff perspective, but let’s see what happens when we compare the playoff teams and what they were able to do in the regular season.
I should point out that out of 14 playoff teams, the Texans were 13th in points scored. They were also 13th in yards. Yet, there were other teams that were similar in yards gained. In a 17 game schedule, the Chargers, Chiefs, Steelers, and Rams all came within 200 total yards of the Texans at the end of the day.
Of course, this by itself doesn’t prove anything. We can add a little bit of context by looking at teams that lost twelve or more games on the season. How efficient were they in putting points on the board? Do we see any similarities between those teams and the Texans?
Clearly, bad teams are inefficient. The Saints actually gained more yards than the Texans and scored fewer points. The Texans were a pedestrian 19th in points scored this season and 22nd in yards. So, they may actually be more efficient than the average team, but that can be attributed to a number of different things. They were one of the best teams at creating turnovers defensively and usually that means short fields or even defensive touchdowns. The Texans were fourth in defensive touchdowns on the season.
A part of the case that needs to be made comes when you look at the difference between the Texans 11 wins and their eight losses. We can look at the difference between their offensive numbers and their defensive numbers. Let’s just throw these numbers up and see what we notice.
These numbers are predictable. It is not until we compare with the losses that we can make any sense. Teams that win games normally outgain their opponents. Teams that win games normally coax more turnovers than they commit, The Texans created 21 turnovers in their wins. They committed 12 turnovers in those eleven wins.
Yet, we also notice that the yards per point totals were also lower in their eleven wins. A part of that is also that three of the four defensive touchdowns on the season came in their eleven wins. So, that...
