Battle Red Blog
Is Christian Kirk the answer in the slot?
For the second time in two seasons, the Texans are sending away their seventh round selection for veteran reinforcements. The 2025 edition of this game sees them trade seventh round selection in the 2025 draft for wide receiver Christian Kirk. Last season saw them trade a seventh rounder to the Cincinnati Bengals for running back Joe Mixon. I think we’d all agree that this would be a steal for the Texans if Kirk is even almost as good as Mixon was last season.
This trade exists in three different levels. First, there is the easy level of the pure deal itself. The Texans had one seventh rounder in their history that turned into a regular starter. Derek Newton was an able tackle for several seasons until he blew out both knees on the same play. That’s one in nearly 25 seasons. Obviously, odds are that the seventh rounder would never do anything of note for the Texans. So, let’s focus on the other two considerations.
In order to do this, I am going to look at Stefon Diggs and Christian Kirk over the last three seasons. The whole idea is that Diggs was the most likely other choice at the time. We are ignoring the money situation for now because that is the second question. Obviously, volume is one thing that is unpredictable when you move from team to team. What we are focused on is the efficiency of production. So, we will look at total targets per 15 games, but we are more focused on catch percentage and yards per target.
Diggs: 138 targets, 96 catches, 69.6 Catch%, 1137 yards, 8.24 yards per target
Kirk: 110 targets, 70 catches, 63.6 Catch%, 948 yards, 8.62 yards per target
Obviously, Diggs is not the only choice. This is a common logical fallacy. We could look at D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Devante Adams, and Cooper Kupp. We can look at them over the last three seasons as well using the same per 15 games rate.
Metcalf: 115 targets, 69 catches, 60.0 Catch%, 986 yards, 8.57 yards per target
Samuel: 92 targets, 58 catches, 63.0 Catch%, 765 yards, 8.32 yards per target
Adams: 155 targets, 90 catches, 58.1 Catch%, 1163 yards, 7.50 yards per target
Kupp: 133 targets, 91 catches, 68.4 Catch%, 1027 yards, 7.72 yards per target
Kirk may not be the best receiver in this group, but he seems to fit pretty well. In particular, he has been better over a per 15 game basis than Deebo Samuel. Samuel cost Washington a 5th rounder. I’d say the Texans got a much better deal than the Commanders did for the price. Of course, the price is when things get sticky.
At present, Kirk has a 16 million cap figure in 2025. Diggs made more than that last season. Samuel makes more than that for the Commanders. Kupp currently makes more than that, but...
