Battle Red Blog
Thursday night games present a bit of a challenge on the writing side of things. A normal Sunday week provides a bit of a routine. We look at the numbers from the previous game and then later in the week offer some kind of commentary on the next Sunday’s game or a commentary on news affecting the Texans that particular week. We have already done “By the Numbers” last Friday. So, today we take a look at something unique about the 2025 Texans.
One of the things I have to do as an analyst is analyze my own analysis. That sounds like a riddle, so it basically comes down to this: do I find that I am overly optimistic or pessimistic in my analysis? If I am honest with myself, I would have to note that I tend towards the pessimistic side of things. Part of that is my nature and part of that is the nature of analysis itself. Commenting on what is going wrong is just juicier than commenting on what is going right. However, if someone is always negative it comes off just as disingenuous as being a constant rah rah guy. So, while I could continue to pile on Nick Caley and the offense, I decided to shift my attention to what is working.
Taking a deep dive into narratives is always a good thing at certain points of the season. There were two narratives on the Houston Texans this season. The first one (and the one we’ve spent the most time on) is the narrative on offense. The opening narrative is that we would be a quicker offense that would keep C.J. Stroud upright and mitigate any deficits in the offensive line. The results on that narrative have been mixed at best. Yet, the other narrative is that the Texans defense should be a top five defense that will keep the Texans in most games. We are analyzing the results of that narrative today. We are doing that by comparing the 2025 defense with the statistical best defense in franchise history from 2011.
Obviously, the 2011 defense was strong across the board. Many analysts look at things like DVOA and other complex stats because points per game can be derived from any number of things. How good was the offense? Did they turn it over a ton and put the defense in bad positions? Were there a ton of special teams plays that skew the numbers? The Texans committed 20 turnovers that season which placed them 6th in that department as well. This is what Bill O’Brien used to lovingly call “complementary football.”
When you take care of the ball AND you have a strong defense then the defensive...
