Value of Things: QB Tiers

Value of Things: QB Tiers
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A couple of weeks ago we introduced the stages of suck. Since we introduced the stages of suck, the Houston Texans are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents 70-10. We are continuing the stages for two very important reasons. First, some questions remain unanswered and probably will be unanswered through the end of the season. Secondly, as irrational as it may be, they started succeeding when we openly mentioned sucking. Maybe the stages of suck are serving as proper motivation.

There were two questions surrounding C.J. Stroud. The first and easiest question to answer is whether he is the quarterback of the future for this team. That is a lower bar to clear. The second question is whether he is really is one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL like we thought he was after 2023. That one is a harder question to answer. So, in order to do that we need to look at the aggregate over five games. Every quarterback will have a dud along the way and every quarterback will have a Ryan Fitzpatrick five touchdown bonanza. The hope is that these duds and career days average each other out and we see what a guy really is.

We will look at several key statistics to evaluate performance. Some quarterbacks do damage with their legs, so I like to combine passing yards and rushing yards into total yards. Some teams have played only four games, so we will look on a per game basis. We will look at total passing and rushing touchdowns, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and rating.

  • Yards Per Game: 238.4
  • Touchdowns: 8
  • Yards Per Attempt: 7.5
  • PCT: 70.8
  • Rating: 102.1

As many times as we have railed against the offense this season, we have to acknowledge that he is on pace to have the best season of his three year career. Stroud has shown significant improvement in his completion percentage and passer rating. He will eclipse 4000 total yards if he stays on this pace and remains healthy. A large chunk of that can be attributed to an improved use of his legs in key moments. So, it would be overly simplistic, but I think the first question is answered so far. THIS C.J. Stroud is definitely the quarterback you want moving forward.

The elite question is a different question entirely and is a lot like nailing Jell-O on a wall. How many quarterbacks are truly elite? Are we talking five? Ten? Half the league? Are there some other method that we can use to separate the wheat from the chaff? The good news is that if we use a 100 rating as the line of demarcation, Stroud already finds himself in the top half of the league so far this season. Prominent quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert are on the outside looking in, but a great performance or two could put them back in that group.

If we use the same numbers...