Battle Red Blog
What could a healthy campaign look like for the talented tight end?
I promised a series of these and silly free agency and trade news got in the way. So, here is the second installment of the “making the leap” series. Today’s feature looks at enigmatic tight end Brevin Jordan. At his very best, Jordan has tantalized Texans’ brass with an impressive combination of speed and power at the tight end position. At his worst, Jordan simply isn’t there.
Based on his first few seasons in the league, Jordan earned himself a nickname we use around these parts. We call him Mr. December. In four NFL seasons, he has 53 total receptions. 28 of those receptions have come in December. If he could somehow replicate that production throughout the other three months of the season then he could be an impressive tight end.
Why has that happened? In his first three years they just didn’t feel like they could trust him. None of us were in the building so we really don’t know why that was the case. He played in every game in December in his first three seasons, but never played more than seven games in any other month over the course of four seasons.
So, this exists in two parts. The first question is to simply look at what happens if he is healthy and in the game. What I like to do is look at a per 15 game average. It assumes players miss a game or two due to bumps and bruises but are otherwise healthy. We are simply taking his 36 total games played and prorating that over 15 games.
36 games, 80 targets, 53 receptions, 532 yards, 5 TD
While we convert these numbers into per 15 game numbers, we should take a look at what the other two tight ends are doing as well. We will look at catch percentage and yards per target as well. We will do that over the same timeframe as Jordan (or just last year in the case of Stover).
Dalton Schultz: 64 games, 366 targets, 247 receptions, 2552 yards, 20 TD
Cade Stover: 15 games, 22 targets, 15 receptions, 133 yards, 1 TD
Obviously, Schultz’s numbers jump off the page. However, there is a difference between volume and quality. He has been productive largely because he has been healthy and because his usage rate is up. However, let’s take a look at what happens per 15 games and when we look at catch percentage and yards per target.
Schultz: 86 targets, 58 receptions, 67.4 catch%, 598 yards, 6.95 yards per target
Jordan: 33 targets, 22 receptions, 66.7 catch%, 222 yards, 6.73 yards per target
Stover: 22 targets, 15 receptions, 68.2 catch%, 133 yards, 6.05 yards per target
When you look at the numbers on only a per target basis, you will notice that Jordan is almost equal to Schultz. The best thing that football teams (or any team in any sport) can do is do the...
