Battle Red Blog
The main things all good teams do during bye weeks is self-scout. As analysts we can do the same thing. A wise analyst once said that you are what your record says you are, but that kind of sage advice breaks down under scrutiny. The standings say the Houston Texans are 2-3 but do the numbers reflect that of a 2-3 football team? Over a 17 game schedule, these things normally average out. Over five games there can be some variance. Are the Texans overachieving or underachieving?
We will look at the normal numbers as much as we can. Some things like time of possession and opponent penalty numbers are more difficult to come by. However, our crack research staff (namely me) will run these things down. We will look at something lovingly called the Pythagorean method. It has limited utility through only five games, but we will look at it just the same.
I seriously doubt Pythagoras was a sports fan, but if he were then he would look at the point differential and ask how in the hell the Texans are a losing football team. The methodology would have the team somewhere between 3-2 and 4-1 on the season. Given the turnover ratio I would go ahead and settle on 3-2. I’m sure we would feel pretty different about this team if they were 3-2. They would be one game back in the loss column to the Colts and they likely would be ahead of the Jaguars if that win came against them.
Of course, we will get to specifics in the good, bad, and ugly, but suffice it to say the Texans are on the positive end on most of these numbers. Being +1 on turnover ratio looks ho-hum, but it actually isn’t on the offense. Averaging one turnover per game is actually not bad. In nearly every category, they are either running even or are ahead of their opponents.
The Texans aren’t just first in points allowed. They are lapping the field. Even before you add the week 6 numbers, they have a 23 point margin on second place. Those are just stupid numbers and made even more stupid by the fact that the Texans are somehow a losing team. If there is one chink in the armor, it is that they have taken it away only six times.
There really is no rhyme of reason for that. They are getting pressure on the quarterback. They are forcing bad throws and they are hitting hard. Those three things usually lead to turnovers and I suspect they will before the...
