Battle Red Blog
Early in the season, I started a series called “The stages of suck.” The beancounters and powers that be informed me that this series was not well received. Apparently, the packaging was off the mark. However, it was based on a very clear premise that is still with us today. The Texans are a team with expectations. That sort of thing happens when you make it to the divisional round three years in a row. It also happens when you flame out in that round three years in a row.
Every individual situation is different, so the hot seat looks different. In short, the idea is to answer the question of who gets the blame if the situation goes sideways? The Texans are both unique and typical at the same time. On the one hand, the quarterback is the first one in the crosshairs and that is not unique in the slightest. On the other hand, the head coach is usually number two on the hit list and there is very little chance of DeMeco Ryans being anywhere near the hot seat at any point this season.
As per usual, the circumstances behind the hot seat depend greatly on the circumstances. If the Texans were to suddenly become the worst defense in the NFL then C.J. Stroud would not be on the hook. However, if the season goes south it will most likely involve him in some way. Since the Value of Things is a place for statistical analysis, I thought I would compare him to two quarterbacks that got put off on the huge extension timeline. Those teams played the franchise tag game. Where does C.J. Stroud compare with them following their third season?
Every situation is different. Cousins had been a backup for three years before this three year run with the Washington outfit. They let him walk and he went to the Minnesota Vikings. Prescott played year to year for awhile and you could argue the Cowboys mishandled his contract situation and therefore overpaid him. This is also not a rank ordering of guys. Obviously, players put up numbers in part based on who is around them and what they are asked to do.
The point is two-fold. First, the conversation around the Texans not giving Stroud his extension has been wild and hyperbolic on both sides. Of course, I have contributed to that with past articles, so my hands are not clean here. The point is that his situation is similar enough to others to defend the Texans waiting on an extension. Eventually, it comes down to whether you believe he can be the guy to lead you to a Super Bowl. In that context, he is extremely similar to where Prescott and Cousins were at that stage in their careers.
It shouldn’t be any surprise that subsequent seasons from those two likely color our judgment here. Stroud has the same number of playoff wins as Cousins and Prescott combined. We have to suppress the urge...
