ClutchPoints
Well, talk about a game that’s completely flipped the script. The Dallas Cowboys’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs came as a surprise to many. While Dallas has been playing well as of late, it still was a shock to see them go blow-for-blow against a rejuvenated Patrick Mahomes. Meanwhile, Kansas City was coming off a clutch win against the Colts that seemed to have turned their team around.
After that Thanksgiving game, though, the landscape looks much different. The Chiefs are now in real danger of missing not only the Super Bowl, but the entire playoffs as well. On the other hand, the door has been opened for the Cowboys to make it to the playoffs, something that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago.
How possible is it for both these teams to make the playoffs? Let’s look at the playoff odds for the Chiefs and Cowboys, based on the three major prediction models.
We did say that the door was open for the Cowboys to make it to the playoffs. That doesn’t necessarily mean that said door is wide open. According to FTN’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average), the Cowboys have a 17% chance of making it to the playoffs, with 9.5% of those odds having them make it as the NFC East champions.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ playoff odds look a little healthier than the Cowboys, but it’s still a bit perilous. DVOA has the Chiefs making the playoffs 46.2% of the time. While there’s still an outside chance for them to host a playoff game (2.0% chance of winning the AFC West), their best path to the playoffs seems to be the Wild Card round as the away team.
Moving over to ESPN’s playoffs prediction model, their Football Power Index, or FPI, projects a similar path for the Cowboys. ESPN has the Cowboys’ playoff odds at around 18%, with a 10% chance of hosting a Wild Card game as the division champions. It’s also worth noting that ESPN gives Dallas a 1% chance of making it to the Super Bowl.
As for the Chiefs, ESPN doesn’t seem to be as high on the reigning AFC champs making it to the playoffs. According to their model, the Chiefs’ odds of making the playoffs are at 41% with a 2% chance of winning the AFC West. They also give the Chiefs a 9% chance of winning the Super Bowl if they make it to the postseason.
As for The Athletic, Austin Mock’s model favors the Cowboys the most out of the three we’ve looked at. Under his model, Dallas makes it to the postseason 23% of the time, with a 10% chance of winning the division. That being said, The Athletic also has the Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds at less than 1%.
On the flip side, The Athletic doesn’t think too highly of the Chiefs’ playoff chances this season. Mock’s model has the Chiefs’ odds at around 37%,...
