Tuesday Open Thread: Sneaky Regression Candidates

Tuesday Open Thread: Sneaky Regression Candidates
Acme Packing Company Acme Packing Company

Every year good teams surprisingly fall off. Who will it be now?

With each new NFL season, there will always be a team that was either a playoff team or downright contender who will regress so hard they’re picking at the top of the draft.

APC Contributor Justis Mosqueda has spent years telling people to watch for records in one score games. If a team has a high percentage of wins in games decided by a touchdown or less, they should be expected to do much more poorly the following season. For example, Jason Garrett won coach of the year in 2016 with a 13-3 Dallas Cowboys team. They were 7-2 in games decided by 7 points or less. The following year they were 2-2 in one score games and missed the playoffs.

Some years you will see the dreaded “Super Bowl Hangover”. This is often attributed to the team who lost the big game and subsequently has to pay the price for going all-in. The 2016 Atlanta Falcons were 11-5 and were one preventable meltdown away from a Super Bowl victory. They have not won their division since.

Who do you feel is this year’s regression candidate?

My answer: The Detroit Lions

It’s no surprise that the Lions haven’t had a great offseason. They lost their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coach promotions. Their offensive line had an average age of 30, which included a 24-year-old Penei Sewell. The average age will now be lower, but at the cost of All-Pro center Frank Ragnow retiring.

Grading a draft before the season even begins is a silly practice, but many draftniks believe the Lions made questionable choices during their week in Green Bay.

It would be a fair expectation to say the Lions will fail to live up to the bar set last year, but that’s a pretty safe bet considering 15-2 is difficult to recreate.