Blogging The Boys
How likely do you think it is that the Cowboys will move around during the draft?
At this time of year, large parts of every NFL fanbase are indulging in trade-down fantasies. Having those extra picks in your mock drafts is so enticing, suddenly you can fit five names where you could previously only fit three, cover all your needs in one fell swoop, or fill out your mocks with extra players from your favorite school. And the mock draft providers add extra incentive by offering completely unrealistic trade scenarios.
Adding further fuel to the Cowboys trade-down fire is Stephen Jones, who suggested earlier this week the Cowboys might be open to trading down this year.
Of course, the Joneses say something similar every year. However, the Cowboys do like to wheel and deal picks during the draft. Since 1989, Dallas has been involved in draft day trades in 31 of their 36 drafts under Jerry Jones. The only five years in which the Cowboys managed to keep their feet completely still on draft weekend were 2000, 2011, 2016, 2018, and 2022 when they did not move away from their originally assigned draft spots once over the entire draft weekend. Is that recent mini-surge of no-trade drafts something we’ll see again this year?
Conventional wisdom holds that teams should trust their draft board and take the best talent that slides into their lap. At the same time, moving back a few spots could net you extra picks with which to address holes in your roster. And the Cowboys have also been successful (at times) in moving up in the draft, which has many fans thinking of slipping the entire Cowboys war room some Adderall to keep Mr. Jones and his crew in their seats, off the phones, and focused on their draft board.
So, what to do?
Sticking to your draft board is not necessarily a guarantee for finding great players, but over the last decade or so, the Cowboys draft boards appear to have been pretty solid. Obviously, the danger inherent in moving around is that you can end up missing some very good players.
In 2009, the Cowboys traded out of the 51st pick for the 75th (OG Robert Brewster, zero NFL career starts) and 110th (LB Victor Butler, two NFL career starts) pick. Within nine picks of that original pick, OG Andy Levitre, BUF (pick 51, 143 career starts), OT Phil Loadholt, MIN (#54, 89 starts), OT Sebastian Vollmer, NE (#58, 80 starts) and OT Will Beatty, NYG (#60, 63 starts) were selected. Each of those guys would have been a dramatic upgrade over what the Cowboys eventually got. And that’s without factoring in six-time Pro Bowler LeSean McCoy, who would have been available at 53.
At the same time, had the Cowboys not traded up in the 2010 and 2014 drafts, they wouldn’t have gotten franchise cornerstones like Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, or DeMarcus Lawrence, just as their moves in 2013 netted them Travis Frederick and...
