Cat Scratch Reader
Your benevolent dictator of Trade Down Island explains the wisdom - and the data - as to why the Panthers should trade back from No. 8.
Greetings from your benevolent dictator of Trade Down Island.
As the calendar turns to April and the NFL Draft draws near, I will dutifully fulfill my role in the coming weeks as the revered, universally beloved leader of my beautiful football-loving island nation. I won last year’s election with 108% of the popular vote to my opponents -8%, so I will take the mandate my people have given me and impose my will for the Carolina Panthers to smartly trade down in the 2025 draft.
I’m writing this brilliant treatise while sitting on the beach, listening to the waves crash, watching dolphins frolic, and sipping on a virgin pina colada served to me by one of my hosts of trained monkey butlers. Living on Trade Down Island is football nirvana, my friends.
Before I begin, I demand that you read the glorious constitution of Trade Down Island. Do it now! That’s an order!
As you have now read, the guiding principles of TDI’s constitution come down to the fact that the NFL draft is nothing but educated guesswork. Therefore, the more picks teams have in the first four rounds, the more likely they are to win the draft over time. Now, if a surefire Pro Bowler is on the board when the Panthers are drafting at No. 8, they should take him. But short of that, they will be better off smartly trading down a few spots in Round 1 to acquire more picks in Rounds 2-4.
While your benevolent dictator is all-wise and all-knowing, my brilliant perspective regarding smartly trading down from No. 8 is based on objective data, which is this:
Between 2014 and 2020, players drafted between No. 8-10 have underperformed players drafted between No. 15-17.
Evaluating draft picks from 2014 through 2020
With data taken from Football Reference, here’s the high-level summary of the performance of players drafted between 2014 and 2020 selected at No. 8-10 versus No. 15-17. I’m stopping with the 2020 draft because it gives players at least four years in the NFL before evaluating their performance:
Yes, beloved subjects, the 21 players drafted between No. 15-17 have outperformed those drafted between No. 8-10 in almost every meaningful statistical category. Those drafted later have appeared in more games, started more total seasons, yielded more Pro Bowlers, and have a superior Approximate Value.
Players drafted between No. 8-10 have produced more All-Pros (six) to those drafted between No. 15-17 (four), but on the whole the players drafted later in the first round have outperformed the players drafted earlier.
If you would like to see the players behind the data, here’s the list of players drafted at No. 8-10 and here’s the link for No. 15-17.
Here’s a quick summary of the Pro Bowlers:
Drafted No. 8-10: Anthony Barr (4), Eric Ebron (1), Vic Beasly (1), Todd Gurley (3),...
