Gang Green Nation
Are the Jets hurting themselves by playing it “safe”
There are many reasons that the New York Jets are not winning games this season. Among the most important are that the offense is struggling and that the defense has taken a step back. However, small reasons can accumulate over time as well and lead to losses.
One such smaller issue may be the New York Jets’ decision-making on 4th downs. The NFL has trended towards more regular attempts to convert on 4th down rather than punting in recent years. This has largely been due to improvements in the use of analytics, which have supported this strategy.
However, the Jets seem to be lagging a bit behind in how they are implementing this change.
In the above chart, the analysts (@fball_insights on X) note the percentage that teams go for it when the win probability gain is at least 1%; higher bars reflect that a team goes for it on a higher percentage of the times that the data says they “should.” As shown here, the Jets are among the teams that have the lowest rate of going for it in these situations.
By no means is this the largest reason that the New York Jets are losing football games. However, for mediocre teams, small decisions can be the difference in losing or winning by a score. Based on this, the Jets may indeed be leaving points on the board, which could be another reason that their record is as poor as it is thus far this season.
