The Falcoholic
The arrow is pointing up for the Falcons thanks to Michael Penix, but hitting on the QB doesn’t solve all their problems.
The Atlanta Falcons hope they’re on a promising path to long-term success, which they aim to realize by the end of the 2025 season.
Over the weekend, both Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot and owner Arthur Blank expressed their optimism about the current state of the Falcons. Yet despite that rosy outlook about the team’s present, their future is in flux. So much rests on the team’s ability to realize Fontenot’s long-term vision and plan, which has been five years in the making, with their first playoff berth since 2017.
The foundation of the team’s long-term success rests on the successful development of quarterback Michael Penix. If the Falcons have their next franchise quarterback, it will do wonders to stabilize their future, mirroring their past success with Matt Ryan under center.
However, hitting on the quarterback doesn’t erase or mitigate the many challenges facing Fontenot and the Falcons in the future. Much like Ryan did when he played under defensive-minded head coaches for all but one of his 14 seasons in Atlanta, Penix faces similar circumstances with head coach Raheem Morris currently at the helm.
Ryan saw each of his first three offensive coordinators hired away to become head coaches elsewhere, introducing instability into the offense due to the vacillating quality of play-calling. Penix’s immediate success increases the potential that current play-caller Zac Robinson departs Atlanta soon, especially given the voracious appetite for offensive-minded head coaches in today’s NFL.
One strategy the Falcons could employ to increase the odds of retaining future successors to Robinson would be to target retread head coaches to call plays. Given the league’s craving for young, up-and-coming offensive minds, targeting older play-callers who have failed in previous head coaching stints could prove advantageous.
These candidates currently include Mike McCarthy, Frank Reich, Pat Shurmur, and Jay Gruden. They’d be less likely to get poached down the road if they succeed in Atlanta. However, the potential trade-off for prolonged stability at offensive coordinator may come from having offenses that are far from the cutting edge.
For example, Gruden worked with Morris during their shared days with Washington in 2014 when the former was the head coach. Yet, Gruden’s most recent experience as a play-caller came with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020, resulting in a 1-15 record thanks in part to a 27th-ranked offense according to DVOA. Given how much team success is driven by offensive output in the modern NFL, a resume like Gruden’s at first glance doesn’t offer the firepower that will keep the Falcons in annual playoff contention.
Instead, the Falcons’ best chance at perennial contention may be mirroring the success of the Pittsburgh Steelers under defensive-minded head coach Mike Tomlin, especially during his 15 seasons coaching quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. That blueprint rested on...
