Gang Green Nation
One of the biggest internal debates among fans this time of year is whether you should actually be rooting for wins or losses down the stretch. Simply put: to tank or not to tank. Unfortunately for the Jets, this has basically turned into an annual tradition at this point. If the season ended today, the Jets would be slotted at 4th overall in the draft. Based on strength of schedule tiebreakers, they’d likely pick ahead of teams like the Titans, Raiders, and Giants if they finish with the same record, but behind teams like the Browns and Saints. So the real question becomes: how likely are the Jets to move up or down from that spot?
I looked at two main metrics for this: DAVE (from the old Football Outsiders crew) and ESPN’s FPI. DAVE stands for DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early. Think of this as a blend of preseason projections and actual performance that gradually shifts toward what teams have actually shown. Both DAVE and FPI are meant to be predictive, all-in team-strength numbers. From a stat perspective: “how good is this team really when you strip out the noise?” Somewhat surprisingly, both these metrics happen to see the Jets slightly differently.
Starting with DAVE: right now the Jets rank 27th in the league. When you simulate the season forward thousands of times based on that, DAVE projects them to finish with about 4.4 wins. So 4–13 or 5–12 are the most likely records. A big part of that is simply the Jets having a softer schedule late in the year. Statistically, they land the No. 1 pick in 9.4% of simulations and a top-five pick in 58% of them, both of which rank 4th-worst behind the Titans, Raiders, and Saints.
FPI is a little harsher on the Jets. ESPN has the Jets at 30th in the league, and over 10,000 simulations projects them for about 4.1 wins. That bumps up the tank odds a bit: the Jets get the top pick in 14.4% of simulations and a top-five pick in 71.4% of them. Both rank third-worst, with only the Titans and Raiders projected to finish below them. ESPN’s Seth Walder shows this below with the Jets’ average draft slot at 4.3, which he charted out here:
So basically, as things stand right now, the Jets landing No. 1 or No. 2 would be a genuine surprise. Statistically, they’re most likely to end up somewhere between picks 3–7, with 4 or 5 being the most likely outcomes. Of course, that can change in a hurry. Especially if the Jets give Brady Cook a look down the stretch, which honestly wouldn’t shock me at all. But, with the Jets only 2.5-point underdogs against the Falcons this week, it also wouldn’t be crazy if they stumble into another win sooner rather than later.
For better or worse, this is shaping up to be yet another season where a good chunk of Jets fans spend December scoreboard-watching and rooting for teams like...
