Windy City Gridiron
The Chicago Bears didn’t kick off the Ben Johnson era quite like fans had hoped. The Vikings scored 21 fourth-quarter points to come from behind and hang an L on the Bears in week one.
However, had you played the player props with me, you’d be looking at three victorious bets in your account.
Monday night’s game is a good example of shopping for the best number. We give you these numbers courtesy of FanDuel, but there are other domestic sportsbooks out there that may give you a better price. For example, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards in week one totaled 53 yards. Swift’s number moved between 52.5 and 53.5, but there was another book that had it at 50.5 all week. If you shopped for the best number, you’d have a certain victory, but if you rushed into your wager, you may have lost the bet by a half yard.
The Bears now head to Detroit to face the Lions, and here are three props we will be playing.
We are going back to the well and hammering Swift again. Ben Johnson can say he trusts Kyle Monangai, but until he starts regularly giving him the football, we can’t assume he’s going to play a big role just yet. Roschon Johnson has been limited all week. Even if he plays, he hasn’t had a regular practice since August 7th, and I have a hard time imagining he’s going to just step in and grab 10 to 15 carries.
That leaves Swift as the workhorse back again. Swift was out there for 81% of the snaps against the Vikings that resulted in 17 carries. I expect similar usage from Swift this week. I also believe the Lions’ defensive front isn’t nearly as strong as the Vikings. That should open up the running game a little. The Bears’ run scheme may not be a well-oiled machine in week two, but it should be better than the effort that resulted in 20 carries for 61 yards (if you remove Caleb Williams’ scrambles).
The Swift over feels like a strong play again. One friendly reminder to again look for the best number before you place your wager.
On Monday, DJ Moore had 68 receiving yards on just 3 catches, and he only saw 5 targets overall. I settled in and watched the All-22 after the game, and you know what I saw? DJ Moore is open all over the field.
Ben Johnson is no dummy. I’m sure he saw how well DJ was separating on Monday, and I have to figure there is going to be more of an effort to make sure DJ is more involved in the offense. There’s no reason to think DJ doesn’t see his target total jump to 8 to 10, and if he gets himself 5 to 7 catches, there’s no reason to think he doesn’t clear this number pretty easily...
