Baltimore Beatdown
Data experts and projection models all see the Ravens among the upper echelon of NFL teams in 2025.
For the third time this offseason, an analytics-based model forecasting the 2025 season has been published and the results indicate the Ravens should be in the upper echelon of teams. Most recently, it’s ESPN with their Football Power Index for the 2025 season.
“The NFL’s 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Bills,” ESPN’s Seth Walder wrote. “These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, meaning none of them would be favored by more than a single point over another on a neutral field... The common theme between the top five teams? Offensive strength. That’s right, the ‘defense wins championships’ cliché isn’t reflected here. Offense is more stable from game to game and season to season, so teams with the best past quarterback and offensive production are more likely to repeat that success. That’s critical because the point of the FPI is to look ahead, not back. It’s no coincidence that the top five teams also have the five best offenses according to the FPI, albeit in a different order.”
According to the model, the Ravens have the fourth-best chance to win the Super Bowl (9%). However, the model has the Ravens vs. Eagles as the second-most likely Super Bowl LX matchup.
About two weeks ago with the schedule release, the “Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model” was announced. They simulated the 2025 NFL regular season 100,000 times and topping their list were the Ravens.
“The Baltimore Ravens have the highest odds to win the Super Bowl at 11.9 percent, according to the model. The Buffalo Bills, at 10.1 percent, have the second-best projection, representing a fairly significant gap between the Ravens and the field, Jeff Howe wrote. “The Ravens’ biggest hurdle appears to be the strong competition in the AFC North. They have a 55.2 percent chance to win the division, which is only the fifth-highest mark in the league. It’s not all that surprising. The Ravens have won 25 regular-season games over the past two seasons, with quarterback Lamar Jackson winning an MVP in 2023 and nearly claiming the award again in 2024. They get electric play out of the most important position, still have their core in place and will be well-coached. Expect the Ravens to be a force once again next season.”
If you think 100k simulations is a lot, wait until NFL Network’s Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund’s projection. She states she ran one million simulations for the 2025 regular season. And once more, the Ravens were the top team.
“The Ravens begin by playing their three most difficult projected matchups of the season within the first four weeks: Week 1 at the Bills on Sunday Night Football, Week 3 vs. the Lions on Monday Night Football and Week 4 at the Chiefs,” Frelund wrote. “One late-season game to circle is the Week 17 showdown with the...
