Acme Packing Company
If the Green Bay Packers defeat the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football this evening, the two teams’ performances on third downs should be a major factor. In fact, those numbers are likely a significant reason why the Packers remain favored coming into this game, even coming off a devastating upset loss to the Carolina Panthers a week ago and with the Eagles holding the NFC’s top spot.
It may seem counter-intuitive that the Eagles, with a well-respected running game and a mobile quarterback, are among the NFL’s worst teams on third downs, but it’s true — and it’s true on both sides of the football.
Offensively, Philadelphia ranks 30th in third down conversion rate, which comes in at exactly 33.3% this season. Part of the reason for this that their run game has been struggling to find its footing this year. The once-vaunted Eagles ground game went through a five-game stretch this season when they failed to hit the 90-yard mark in any single game. Two of those contests saw them pick up just 45 yards each.
Even in the Eagles’ last game, a 38-20 win over the New York Giants two weeks ago when the running game surged to a 267-yard day, they were bad on third down, going just 2-for-8.
Meanwhile, the Packers defense is a top-ten unit on third down, allowing opponents to convert only 36% of their opportunities.
Predictably, distance is a driving factor for success rate for both units. The Packers are allowing teams to convert at around a two-thirds clip on third and short (1-3 yards to gain). That number drops to a touch over 40% on third and medium (4-6), then down to around 10 percent on third and long (7+). The Eagles’ offense has similar conversion rates in all three bands, as you can see below. However, a big problem for Philly is the frequency at which they face 3rd-and-long:
Notably, more than half of the Eagles’ third downs are of the 7+ variety, which helps explain why they are among the league leaders in three-and-outs on offense. The Packers’ numbers on defense are much more spread out across distance. But if the Packers can replicate early-down success against the Eagles, this bodes really well — Jalen Hurts is taking a lot of sacks on 3rd-and-long, and the Packers’ pass rush unit would love to pin its ears back and get after him.
Green Bay’s offense is not nearly as dependent on yardage when it comes to their third down conversion rate. In fact, they are bizarrely better on third down and 7-10 yards to go than they are on third and short!
The Eagles, meanwhile, are actually pretty decent on stopping third-and-short, comparatively speaking. They’re allowing just over a 50 percent clip, even better than the Packers’ mark. However, they are notably bad on 3rd-and-1 (allowing first downs on 14 of 18 attempts) then get oddly...
