Buffalo Rumblings
I’m sensing a theme…
What was the biggest issue with the Buffalo Bills in 2024?
The quarterback was the MVP. The offensive line was great. The running backs were fantastic.
The wide receivers had their concerning moments in games, but didn’t stop the team from fielding the best offense in franchise history. The tight ends underperformed relative to expectations coming into Dalton Kincaid’s second year, but was anybody screaming for additions there?
Most people would say that defense was the most significant (not only) issue with the Bills last season, but let’s go deeper than that. Where specifically on defense? What triggered the obscenities at the television and the pulling of whatever hair you have left?
Was it the run defense? No, it was likely the pass defense, and the metrics back up your frustration. Of all the DVOA metrics Buffalo had in 2024 (passing DVOA, rushing DVOA, pass defense DVOA, and rush defense DVOA), pass defense ranked the worst for the team, at a decidedly middling 15th in the NFL.
“So by all means, let’s invest the most resources in the defense this offseason,” the team may have said, clearly reflected by their draft capital and guaranteed money expenditures, outlined by Joe Dibiase of WGR550:
But let’s go one step even deeper than that. Buffalo held opposing teams to the fourth-longest average third down in the NFL, yet allowed one of the highest amounts of total first downs of any defense in the league.
It wasn’t just defense.
It wasn’t just pass defense.
It wasn’t just third-down passing defense.
It was 3rd & Long passing defense.
How many times did you make a joke about it to your friends or on social media? It was colloquially expected that the Bills would get an opposing team into 3rd & Long and then give up the first down — over and over again.
I thought about this phenomenon a lot watching the early parts of the 2025 NFL Draft. I have no idea how specifically intentional this thematic throughline was in its creation, but it is certainly noticeable in its digestion.
Cornerback Maxwell Hairston, Defensive tackle T.J. Sanders, edge rusher Landon Jackson, and defensive tackle Deone Walker all have opportunities to make the team better. They have opportunities to make the defense better. They have opportunities to make the pass defense better. But even most specifically, they have the opportunity to make the 3rd & Long passing defense better.
Maxwell Hairston excels from off-coverage where he can use his aggressiveness, explosion, and athleticism to close on balls in the air. When are you most likely to play off coverage (with a safety over the top to allow aggressiveness from your corners)? Third and long.
T.J. Sanders is a mature pass rusher, someone who general manager Brandon Beane openly discussed playing next to Ed Oliver on passing downs. Which obvious passing downs? Third and long.
What do you need from your edge rushers on 3rd & Long to help your interior defensive...
