We’re in, now who will we play?
We know the Houston Texans are in the playoffs. What we don’t know is what seed they will be and who they will open with at NRG. They are guaranteed an opening round home game due to the fact that they won the AFC South. Beyond that, the odds get pretty dicey if you want to move up. So, following are the various odds under the various scenarios.
In order for this to be even a remote possibility, the Texans would have to win the rest of their games and finish 12-5. Let’s go ahead and assume they finish 12-5. Here are the two division winners, their current record, and the remaining games on their schedule.
Buffalo Bills (11-3)— Patriots, Jets, Patriots
The good news is that we would have the tie breaker against the Bills. The bad news is that they would have to finish 1-2 or 0-3 in the remaining three games AND the Texans would have to win their remaining three games. Let’s just agree that the greatest probability is that the Bills finish in front of the Texans.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)— Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals
Okay, now we are getting somewhere. If the Texans beat the Ravens and the Ravens beat the Steelers then the Texans would hold the tiebreaker against the Steelers. In that regard, the Texans would be ahead of the Steelers even if the Steelers finish 2-1. If everything is on the up and up then we would have to assume that the Steelers would also be favored to lose to the Chiefs. So, a 1-2 finish is likely provided that the Steelers lose to the Ravens.
We are agreeing that the Buffalo Bills are likely to finish no worse than 2-1 given their remaining schedule and 3-0 is probably the most likely result. So, passing them is not mathematically impossible, but you have just about as good a chance of winning $1,000 on scratch off tickets as the Texans passing Buffalo.
We looked at the Steelers closing case above, so we know the score on that level, but there is an added wrinkle. Instead of simply assuming the above, let’s run through every possible scenario to see what happens.
Texans go 0-3: The have the fourth seed.
Texans go 1-2: If they win against Baltimore and Baltimore beats Pittsburgh then they would have the tiebreaker against Pittsburgh, but Baltimore would become the third seed if they finish 2-1 and overtake the Steelers in the AFC North. If both the Steelers finish 0-3 and Baltimore finishes 1-2 with that victory coming over the Steelers then the Texans would backdoor into the third seed.
Texans go 2-1: This one could actually work out in their favor. Assuming one of those two wins came against the Ravens, they would hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens and claim the third seed should the Ravens also finish 2-1 with the one loss coming...