The Updated Draft Research Project

Where to find stars, starters, and role-players in the NFL Draft.

Josh Sunderbruch initially published his draft research project three years ago, but now, with data for 10 draft classes under the rookie wage scale (2011-2020), and those 2020 draft picks having been in the league for five years, he wanted to revisit the project.

Here’s a quick summary of what this massive undertaking is all about.

He looked at 2500 players drafted over the first ten years of the rookie salary scale and modern collective bargaining agreement to study what actually happens in terms of finding stars, starters, and role-players in the NFL Draft.

How likely is it that a third-round center will develop into a starter? What are the odds that a first-round wide receiver will make a Pro Bowl? How much contribution should you realistically expect from a seventh-round linebacker? How often does a team re-sign a player after their rookie deal?

Here’s a breakdown of the series.

• Part 1 is a global overview and spotlight on Day 1 Players (1st rounders).
• Part 2 will look at Day 2 Players (Rounds 2-3).
• Part 3 will examine Day 3 Players (Rounds 4-7).
• Part 4 will be about offensive linemen and some of the nuances surrounding where they are selected.
• Part 5 will focus on offensive skills players, exclusive of quarterbacks, with a look at measurable production.
• Part 6 will do the same with defensive players
• Part 7 will summarize the findings of the project and draw additional conclusions.