Stampede Blue
The Colts will face the Broncos in a pivotal game today that will likely determine if they make the playoffs. What can they do to ensure a win to keep the playoff hopes alive?
The 6-7 Colts take on the 8-5 Broncos in Week 15 for the largest playoff odds leverage game of the week. The Colts would have an estimated 49-56% chance at a playoff berth with a win, but a 4-10% chance at the playoffs with a loss. The Broncos have a 89-95% chance at a playoff berth with a win, but a 48-54% chance at a playoff berth with a loss. With the stakes being so high, this matchup is as close as one can get to an elimination game at this point in the season.
The Broncos boast an impressively improved team this year, with one of the best defenses of the year in most metrics and are led with rookie QB Bo Nix showing growth and development over the course of the year. So far, the consensus is this will be a Broncos victory according to both ESPN and NFL analyst panels.
What can the Colts do to shock every panelist with an upset win?
Every QB has a decrease in efficiency and effectiveness vs pressure. Sacks occur, footwork and arm angles gets messy, accuracy becomes more erratic, processing gets sped up, and bad decisions are made. Often times, the QB who has to face more pressure in a game, loses.
The Colts have a tough task on both sides in this matchup. On Offense, they face the Defense Tied 1st in Pressure Rate per NFL Pro while starting 3 backups from Center to Right Tackle on their line. On Defense, they have to face an offensive line that is first in Pass Protection Efficiency, potentially without edge rusher Tyquan Lewis due to a late week Rib injury.
The Colts are likely starting rookie Tanor Bortolini at Center, with longtime Colts starter Mark Glowinski back at Right Guard for a 2nd game in 2024, and rookie Matt Goncalves at Right Tackle. Thankfully the remaining starters of Left Tackle Bernhard Raimann and Left Guard Quenton Nelson each rank top 10 at their respective positions and will likely face on most of their snaps the toughest assignments of Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen respectively. The Colts have to trust their best linemen can hold up consistently in pass protection against Bonitto (20th/118 EDGEs) and Allen (21st/123 interior DL).
However the Broncos are not just a two man wrecking crew of a pass rush unit, as DE John Franklin-Myers and OLB Jonathan Cooper also are high end pass rushers who rank in the top 20 or 30 of their positions as well. With them as well as Nose Tackle DJ Jones likely teeing off against the Colts backup linemen, along with the help of the 2nd highest blitz rate scheme in the NFL, the Colts likely will need to...
