Behind the Steel Curtain
I’m sure you’ve had the same viewing experience I’ve had while watching the Steelers at times this season. Pittsburgh lines up on first down, and out loud you say, “Here comes another run.”
Pittsburgh has been pretty predictable when it comes to first-down play-calling. Per SumerBrain from Sumer Sports, the Steelers run the ball on 51 percent of first-down plays, which is much lower than I anticipated. They throw the ball on 44 percent of first-down plays, with the other 5.2 percent being categorized as “other,” which is all but certainly kneel-downs to end the game or the first half.
And while the Steelers run more than they pass on first down, the discrepancies in success are staggering. The Steelers have a success rate of 36.7 percent on first-down runs and an EPA per play of -0.094. To put that in perspective, that would rank 22nd in the NFL if it were their overall rush success rate. However, when they throw the ball to open drives or new sets of downs, they become incredibly efficient.
On first-down passes, the Steelers average 8.4 yards per attempt with a success rate of 59.5 percent. How good is that? No team in the NFL has an overall success rate over 51 percent. Their first down EPA per play when they throw on first down is 0.391, which ranks fourth in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s biggest plays this season have come on first down. The Jaylen Warren screen pass that went for 65 yards, the DK Metcalf 80-yard touchdown pass against the Vikings, Metcalf’s 31-yard catch-and-run against the Jets – all were first-down plays. Pittsburgh’s passing attack, specifically in the quick game, has been incredibly useful on first down, which helps set the tone for the drive and the game.
And while the Steelers have proven to be very efficient while passing on first down, they are headstrong in not doing it. Despite the aforementioned efficiency, the Steelers rank last in the NFL in first-down pass attempts (42) and 20th in first-down pass rate.
That type of predictability of constantly running the ball on first down kills drives. Teams can sniff it out, stuff at the line of scrimmage, and put you behind the sticks – which, as we covered in the run-game numbers above, is exactly what’s happening.
Putting the ball in Aaron Rodgers’ hands has proven to be a major net-positive for the Steelers. Doing so also gives the offense a bit more freedom, as it becomes less predictable for opposing defenses, and they should absolutely look to do so more frequently in these situations going forward.
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