Mile High Report
How did the Bronco run game compare to the rest of the league in terms of avoiding stuffed runs and breaking long runs?
According to ESPN’s run block win rate, the Denver Broncos had the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL.
Our pass rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Likewise, our pass block win rate metric conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.
In run stop win rate, a defender can earn a win by doing any of the following: beating his blocker so he’s in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backward; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. If a defender earns a run stop win, his blocker earns a loss — and vice versa.
So the Bronco OL was winning on 75% of their run blocks (win defined above), and yet the run game was mostly pedestrian with the Broncos coming in 21st in yards per carry (not removing kneeldowns) and 23rd in rushing TDs. I wanted to look deeper into the state of the Bronco run game, so that is this.
We should first note how much of a big part Bo Nix played in the Bronco run game. Bo had 78 actual runs with 50 of those being scrambles and 28 of those as designed runs. You can see how his numbers compare to other QBs below
His 41 rushing first downs was fifth among starting QBs with only Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson getting more in 2024. Those four are literally the who’s who is QB who scare defensive coordinators as runners. I also found it interesting that Patrick Mahomes was only used on TWO designed runs in the 2024, so 36 of his 38 actual runs come on scrambles. Similarly, Bryce Young was only used on one designed run. On the other end of the spectrum you have Hurts with 90 and Jackson with 83 designed runs.
I also found it interesting that Matthew Stafford only scrambled three times, but was used on 12 designed runs (probably QB sneaks). It should be noted that most QBs with a host of sneaks and few scrambles had low actual YPC values.
Ok, so we have established that neither the OL nor Bo Nix was the problem in the Bronco run game in 2024, it stands to reason that it was the running backs (unless you want to blame the play-callers). So let’s see how the RBs did since most of our actual runs (368) were by RBs. Marvin Mims had 13 carries and Troy Franklin had two.
The league average in YPC was 4.44 (4.60 if you remove kneel-downs).
The Broncos runners did a good job of avoiding getting stuffed (a...
