The Phinsider
The Miami Dolphins enter Week 5 at 1-3, facing a less-than-formidable opponent in the 1-3 Carolina Panthers. After an 0-3 start to the season, the Dolphins will want to use the momentum from their Week 4 victory over the New York Jets to improve themselves to 2-3.
The Panthers, meanwhile, are looking to make a statement on home turf, and start their journey towards a winning season, which would be their first since 2017.
As always, this is the NFL. These games are often decided by nothing more than a few inches here and there. With that said, here’s a look at one way the Dolphins can win, and one where they can lose.
For the Dolphins, their path to winning is simple**:** start fast, and don’t look back.
The Panthers will be without lead running back Chuba Hubbard on Sunday, stripping them of their best option in the backfield. That leaves the onus squarely on Bryce Young’s arm to win the game for Carolina. If the Dolphins score early, they’ll tilt the game script in their favor, forcing Carolina and Young into obvious passing situations. Force them into 2nd-and-10, 3rd-and-9, 4th-and-6.
On obvious passing downs, as weak as Miami’s defense has been this season, I just don’t trust Bryce Young to deliver. The earlier the Dolphins can put points on the board, the sooner they can dictate tempo and keep the Panthers chasing the game.
Score first, make Bryce Young beat you from the pocket, and the Dolphins probably leave Sunday with a win.
Of course, the Dolphins can just as easily lose this game. One way that happens is if Miami can’t get off the field on third down.
The Dolphins’ third-down defense has been one of the worst in the NFL this year, allowing opposing offenses to convert on 51.1% of their third downs, second worst in the NFL.
Their inability to get off the field has killed them in key moments so far this season, and the same could happen on Sunday.
Those 3rd downs I spoke about earlier? Well, if those 3rd downs look more like 3rd-and-2 and less like 3rd-and-9, I can see the Panthers being able to extend drives and keep Bryce Young in rhythm with short passes. Even without Hubbard, Carolina doesn’t need to gash Miami with the run; they just need to stay ahead of the chains. A couple of five-yard completions here, a broken tackle there, and suddenly Miami’s defense is sucking wind while the Panthers chew up both time-of-possession and momentum.
If Miami allows “death by a thousand third downs,” they’ll hand Carolina every chance to steal this one at home.
Dolphins 24-20 Panthers.
For the second week in a row, I’m predicting a #FinsWin.
I don’t see Bryce Young posing much of a threat to the Dolphins...
