Stampede Blue
The Colts running game needs to have their best game of the season in order to beat the Denver Broncos
The Colts’ matchup against the Denver Broncos on Sunday is their biggest of the year. A loss would all but eliminate them from playoff contention. A win would put their chances of getting in at around 50%. The Broncos have been one of the better teams in the NFL over the past seven games; they are 5-2 with their only losses to the Baltimore Ravens (in a blowout) and the Chiefs (blocked kick gave KC the win). Their point differential in those 7 games is +55, which is 4th best in the NFL. Their offense is clicking, and while they’ve had some bad spots, their defense is also clicking. The key to slowing down a good offense and beating a good defense is with a strong run game.
A strong running game keeps the offense off the field as the running game burns more clock. It also wears on a defense over the course of the game. That’s why the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia, both of whom have the best run offenses in the NFL also have one of the highest time of possessions this season. The Colts, unsurprisingly, are second last in the NFL as Anthony Richardson has a lot of incompletions per gae and their use of Jonathan Taylor and the running game (when Taylor is healthy) has been odd as they would ride him early in games with success and then go away from it. Against the Broncos, they’ll need to ride him and Richardson all game long.
The Broncos run defense is amongst the best in the NFL. They’ve allowed 3.8 yards per carry and 3.3 over their last 3 games. Their 3.8 figure is tied for 2nd best in the NFL.
The Colts average 4.4 yards per carry (12th best in the NFL), but only 3.7 yards per carry over the last 3 games.
Based on projections from gambling sites and personal projections, the Colts are going to average between 100 and 130 yards on the ground. Even if Richardson has his best passing game of the year and amasses 272 yards, if we add that to 130 yards on the ground, 400 yards of offense will likely not be enough. The Colts average 15 yards per point and the Broncos give up nearly 18 yards a point. Based on those projections, 400 yards of offense would only get the Colts to 24 points. The Broncos have put up 24 or more points in their last 5 wins and their two losses happened on the road against elite teams. The Colts defense has allowed 24 or more points in their last 4 games and 21 or more in their last 6 games. The 400 yards of offense comes from an optimistic 272 passing yard projection, so if we’re being more realistic, Richardson will get around 190 yards of passing based on the gambling site projections....
