The Quick, Dirty, Simple Math on Why Micah Parsons is Worth It

I probably don’t need to convince you, the Packer fan, that giving up two firsts, and Kenny Clark for a top-three (and I would argue “the best”) defensive player in football is worth it, but not everyone is a Packer fan. But some people are not Packer fans. Some people are neutral, or hostile, or Jerry Jones, and those folks may not be convinced of just how monumental an upgrade this is. For instance, this guy, who you can tell is smart because his last name is the word people use to describe smart gamblers.

Before I get into my own (honestly not that gory) math, check out Aaron Schatz of FTN’s gory math:

That’s a big jump! Aaron also notes elsewhere that defensive players are seldom worth more than a one win, and he’s right, but I suspect this is the outlier. The exception that proves the rule. About a year ago, I wrote about why the baseball Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistics can never work in football. I stand by that, but I think understanding why that’s the case will help explain why Parsons is far more valuable than any other non-quarterback.

The short version of the WAR problem in football is as follows:

1. You’re splitting 17 available wins among 53 players.
2. Of those 53, quarterbacks eat up at least 1-2 wins, and good quarterbacks can account for 6-8, so now we’re splitting 11-14 wins among 52 players.
3. A tenth of a win in WAR is so small that there’s no way to account for noise, randomness, and luck for anyone but the QB. We know that running backs provide some value, but it’s so small that it’s literally difficult to quantify.

Defensive players are also tricky in terms of assigning individual value because, for instance, if you’re an elite cornerback, the quarterback can simply choose not to throw at you. That’s valuable, but it is again a tricky value to quantify. Organizations like PFF briefly held that a top corner was more valuable than an edge rusher when they were doing their WAR research (though it was close), and I think that’s wrong. It’s not an unreasonable case because you need more corners than edge rushers, which adds to their scarcity, and the athleticism to play high-level corner really is rare, like short stops in baseball. And a good corner can serve to shrink the field for the other corners and safeties in the secondary. Corners are undoubtedly valuable, and if nothing else, more valuable than every other defensive position than edge rusher.

But I’m fairly sure that edge rushers are more valuable, and elite edge rushers like Parsons are more valuable to an absurd extent, for two main reasons.

1. You can’t avoid edge rushers like you can corners.
2. Edge rushers uniquely impact quarterbacks, who are the most valuable players in football.

Defenses fluctuate wildly in value from year to year, specifically because the quality of the offenses and quarterbacks they’re facing...