Acme Packing Company
A closer look at some of the defensive trends under first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.
Today, we’ll look at some of the defensive trends under first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, including blitz rates and coverage usage among other trends.
The Packers' defense finished the season as the 4th most efficient defense in EPA/play (-.066) and 7th in defensive DVOA. Not too shabby for Hafley and his wholesale change from a 3-4 under Joe Barry to a 4-3 in less than a year.
Installing a predominantly 4-3 cover-3 style defense of the Seattle scheme/”legion of boom” mold under Pete Carroll of the mid-2010s, Hafley revamped and re-styled the scheme along the way at various stops, first picking up the scheme with Robert Saleh in 2017 with the 49ers. Since then, Hafley committed to it full-time after bouncing between a 4-3 scheme in Tampa Bay in 2012 and a 3-4 scheme in Cleveland in 2014-2015.
The primary source of data for this article will come from Cody Alexander at Match Quarters utilizing the Field Vision charting for coverage rates, blitz rates, simulated pressures, etc. Other sources of data include RBSDM (EPA metrics), Sports Info Solutions, and Pro Football Reference.
Coming from Boston College, Hafley was primarily a single high scheme defense (cover-1 and cover-3) where they played cover-1 man 43.0% and cover-3 27.5% of the time.
In 2024 in Green Bay, Hafley called cover-1 17.7% of the time and cover-3 37.2%. The defense finished 10th in cover-3 EPA/play and 11th in cover-1 EPA/play.
At Boston College in 2023, Hafley only called cover-2 3.6% of the time. In the NFL, he ran cover-2 at the 5th highest rate in 2024 at 21.1%. We’ll cover more of this coverage later as it coincides with some of the staple disguises of the scheme on high leverage third downs. They finished 7th in cover-2 EPA/play.
Altogether, the Packers defense played zone 78.2% of the time (9th highest in the NFL) and man coverage 21.8% of the time (24th in the NFL). In the NFL, if you don’t have a stable pass rush that can win a majority of the time then there is no point in calling man coverage at a high rate and the defense did not have a consistent pass rush they could rely on.
In 2024, the Packers had the 8th lowest pass blitz rate in the NFL at 27.4%. Instead they, Hafley elected to blitz sparingly and primarily only did so on passing downs. On third and long (3rd and 6+), the Packers defense blitzed 45.2% of the time, 2nd highest in the NFL. On third and medium (3rd and 3 - 3rd and 5), the Packers blitzed 54.4% of the time, 3nd in the NFL.
Here’s an example of a well-timed blitz from week three versus Tennessee. The defensive play call is a cross-dog blitz with cover-1 behind it. It’s a unique personnel grouping rarely seen outside of schemes like DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh....
