Crossing Broad
The Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers are not just two of the best teams in the NFL. They’re two of the most profitable teams against the spread.
The Birds own an 8-5 record against the spread, while the Steelers are tied with Denver Broncos for the league’s best ATS mark at 10-3.
Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and Co. are five-point favorites at the Linc on Sunday, and that’s actually a bad number for the Birds in terms of betting trends.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS as a favorite of five points or more. That record was added to with the failure to cover against the Carolina Panthers as a 14-point favorite last week.
Nick Sirianni’s team failed to cover large spreads against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, and Cleveland Browns. The lone cover of a spread of five points or higher came against the Dallas Cowboys.
All of those teams don’t fit in with the Steelers, though, which makes the spread a bit puzzling. The Steelers are in the mix for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and have only lost once since October 6th.
George Pickens’ injury absence might have something do with the number. He isn’t playing for the second straight week due to a hamstring issue.
Pittsburgh’s options after Pickens aren’t great. They are more supporting-cast guys than No. 1 pass-catchers, like Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson.
The Steelers still have Najee Harris at running back, and I’d guess we see a ton of Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth involved in the short passing game to combat the lack of star power at wide out and the Eagles’ coverage.
Pittsburgh’s lack of firepower does play into another significant Eagles trend that’s popped up in the last month or so.
The Eagles are 4-1 to the under in their last five games, and in fact, they have become one of the NFL’s best under teams at 8-5.
Sunday’s total currently sits at 43. The totals for Eagles typically been listed between 45 and 50 lately, but it’s worth noting they are 1-2 to the under when the total closed at 43 or less this season.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 5-4 to the over when the total closes at 43 or lower. The Steelers usually have one of the lowest totals each week because of their defense. They’ve had five games close with a total below 40.
As you’d expect with two strong defenses, there aren’t many matchups to exploit on the PA sports betting player prop market. Both teams are solid at defending each position.
However, it is worth noting the whole A.J. Brown nontroversy this week, but if you’re playing strictly off narrative, Brown should get the ball early and often.
Brown’s receiving yard prop sits at over/under 80.5.
Saquon Barkley’s rushing yard prop, one week after being one of the five highest numbers in sportsbook history, sits at over/under 98.5 rushing yards, which is around where that number will be for the rest of the...
