Acme Packing Company
Even though Week 12 still isn’t even over, it’s very obvious who the NFC’s playoff spots will come down to. Both NFL Pro’s data and the New York Times’ playoff predictor have the following teams with less than a two percent chance of making the postseason: the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants. With so many teams on the brink of elimination, we’ll break down what matters for the Green Bay Packers moving forward.
So what does all this data mean? First of all, pay attention to the numbers from the NFC South. Basically, there’s about a 3 to 5 percent chance that the NFC South gets a second spot in the playoffs. Otherwise, the Buccaneers and Panthers, whichever wins the South, will just get one spot in the postseason.
That’s important because the NFC South basically does not influence the wildcard seeding. Excluding the South, there are no teams between the Chicago Bears (62%, 54%) and the Dallas Cowboys (10%, 13%) in the playoff race. The gap between these two teams is the most pronounced split in the league right now.
Unless the Cowboys go on a tear to end the year, a door that is now open after Dallas was able to upset the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, it should be an eight-man race for seven playoff spots in the NFC. The Los Angeles Rams and Eagles have already basically punched their tickets for the postseason.
That leaves the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears fighting for the four available non-NFC South spots left in the playoff race. All of these teams are between 8-3 and 7-4 from a record standpoint, so just not finishing last in this game of musical chairs is all that’s relevant for the next six weeks.
You can consume all the data you want over the next month and a half, but what the NFC race really boils down to is not having the worst record among that group over the next six games.
Speaking of data, the Packers’ playoff leverage will be swung a lot by their upcoming game against the Lions. According to the New York Times simulation, Green Bay’s playoff percentage will jump up to 91 percent with a win over Detroit (from 77 percent). With a loss, the Packers would drop down to 68 percent.
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