Gang Green Nation
If you were like me, you were probably a bit surprised at one point watching the Jets’ Week 5 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
I wasn’t necessarily surprised by the result of the game. The 2025 New York Jets experience is one bad performance after another. The surprise was hearing the Fox game announcers talk about the potential the Jets defense has shown. They noted that the Jets were among the league leaders in forcing three and outs on the defensive side of the ball.
Having watched this defense struggle all season long, I found that a bit tough to believe. So I decided to take a look at the numbers. Sure enough, the announcers were correct. Through five weeks of the season the Jets are tied for the league lead with 17 defensive drives ending with a punt after the opposing offense failed to pick up a first down.
Have we underestimated the Jets defense? Is this a unit showing promising signs?
As you might guess, the answer to that is no. Digging a little deeper, I found that of the 17 drives where the Jets forced a punt after three defensive plays, eight of them came in the second half with the opponent carrying a double digit lead. It shouldn’t be a surprise. Defense becomes easier to play in this situation. The offensive gameplan changes. No longer are explosive plays and scores the top priority. Instead running the clock out and avoiding the big mistake that could change the trajectory of the game become paramount.
Jets three and outs with the team trailing by 11.4 points on average.
You might wonder whether that is normal. Isn’t it possible that an inordinate number of three and outs come when a team is way behind?
To answer that question, yes it is possible. But it isn’t the reality in this case.
There are three other teams have have forced 17 three and outs. One of them is this weekend’s opponent, the Denver Broncos. Broncos defensive three and outs come with Denver leading games by 2.9 points on average. The other two teams with 17 three and outs are the Browns and Vikings. Cleveland is typically trailing on these drives but only by 3.2 points, a competitive figure. Meanwhile Minnesota is leading by 4.2 points on average when forcing three and outs.
When things are so bad, I understand the urge to try and find some bright spot, any glimmer of hope. I don’t think it would be accurate to say the Jets’ tendency to force three and outs is a sign this defense has shown it can play at a high level. It’s more a sign that the Jets have the ability to get themselves into situations where the opposing offense can be extremely risk averse.
