Blogging The Boys
Every year at around this time, the first 53-man roster projections pop up. And (almost) every year we dutifully chronicle those first roster projections here on BTB. I usually preface these summaries with an introduction like this:
“Not to be a killjoy here, but if the past 15 years or so that I’ve been intensely following the Dallas Cowboys training camp have taught me anything, it’s that rosters are largely set before the offseason program even begins, and most of the extra players brought in are little more than sparring and training partners for the roster locks.
That is the stark reality of NFL life.
Injuries and standout performances in camp provide the opportunity for maybe a handful of players each year to work their way onto the roster, but that’s pretty much it.”
That sure sounds nice and may even appear insightful, but is that actually true? To find out, I took a look at the pre-camp roster projections from 2023-2025 across a number of sources.
To my surprise, the panelists averaged just over 44 correct players – meaning nearly one in every five roster spots changed between late July and Week 1.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 4px 6px !important; } YearESPNAthleticBtBDMNFoxportsTotalArcherMachotaRogers (23),
Haynie(24-25)HoytHelman2023444444—4544.32024454444——44.3202544444343—43.5Interestingly, every one of the 11 projections I looked had at least 21 starters right, five got every single one of 22 starters right – and that would have been nine if Juanyeh Thomas hadn’t rocketed from an afterthought entering camp in 2023 to a Week 1 starter.
The first lesson is straightforward: Projecting the top guys on the roster really isn’t such a hard thing to do. Barring injuries, suspensions, trades, retirements and other things of that nature, a preseason roster projection should have the eventual starters on the roster.
The uncertainty isn’t at the top of the roster. It’s at the margins. And that’s where these projections get interesting – the players the projections collectively missed on.
Below is a summary chart over the last three years of players that made the season-opening 53-man roster but didn’t show up in any of the projections (or only on one).
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 0px 6px !important; } SourceHow acquired202320242025Unpredictable TransactionTradeNoah IgbinogheneJordan PhillipsKenny ClarkTrey LanceAndrew Booth– –Free agent – –Linval JosephJames Houston – –Nick VigilHakeem AdenijiPS signing – –Buddy Johnson– –Waiver claim– –– –Trikweze Bridges– –– –Reddy Steward– –– – Trevor KeeganInjuries / PUP / suspensionsactivated from PUP– –– –Trevon DiggsUnexpected camp winners****Draft PickJalen Brooks (7th, rookie)Israel Mukuamu (6th)– – – –Matt Waletzko (5th)– –Veteran Cooper RushPerrion WinfreyUDFAJuanyeh ThomasTyrus Wheat– –Rico Dowdle – –– –Hunter Luepke (Rookie) – –– –T.J. Bass (Rookie) – –– –Brock Hoffmann – –– –Markquese Bell – –– –The chart highlights (in blue and red) that some of...
