Pride of Detroit
The Detroit Lions (5-3) and Washington Commanders (3-6) will square off in a Week 10 matchup. The last time these two teams met, the Lions’ injury-depleted defense couldn’t keep up with Washington’s offense. While things have changed this time around—the Lions defense is playing at a high level, and Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is injured and won’t play—Lions players haven’t forgotten about that loss.
“That’s definitely a part of it, absolutely,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff admitted earlier in the week. “I think more than that, we want to get off of a losing streak here and get a W. Certainly, you’re thinking about that, but I think it’s nine games ago now. So yeah, we’re trying to get a win this year and maybe use that as a little added motivation if we need it.”
If the Lions want to get back to their winning ways, they’ll need to follow the defensive keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 10 Preview: Breaking down Commanders’ offensive and defensive schemes.
No matter what statistical measure you source—whether it be Jeremy Reisman’s On Paper, PFF, Next Gen Stats, SumerSports, etc.—the Lions’ biggest advantage in this game comes with their passing attack.
One unique system for exploring game matchups is NFL Pro, powered by Next Gen Stats. In their preview section, they combine 23 different Next Gen Stats to generate a 1-5 star ranking system for matchup comparisons. Most game previews show results that are distributed between both teams, with a few positive ratings that can favor one team by as many as 5 stars.
This week’s NFL Pro preview of the Lions’ passing game vs. the Commanders’ passing defense provided some overwhelming results:
That is a startling statistical advantage that significantly favors the Lions in virtually every category. So, what’s been the trouble in Washington? I broke down a handful of problems in the “Scouting notes” section of my scheme breakdown article this week, including the Commanders being slow to generate pressure, leaving open holes in coverage when they dial up aggression/blitz, a higher amount of bump-and-run coverage leading to late reactions and consistent trail coverage, deeper drops into zones leaving open space underneath for yards after the catch (YAC), and poor read-and-react decisions vs. play-action.
Look for the Lions to target Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the short and intermediate levels, where they can best use their YAC. Jameson Williams could also benefit from targets in this area, but he may be better served by running vertical routes, an area the Commanders have struggled to defend this season.
Here’s an excerpt from Next Gen stats to support that concept:
“The Commanders’ defense has allowed the 3rd-most completions (28) and a league-high 843 yards on vertical routes run by opposing receivers this season. In Week...
