Pride of Detroit
10 keys to a Detroit Lions victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. It’s the Honolulu Blueprint!
For the third game in a row, the Detroit Lions (12-1) will play inside the comfy confines of Ford Field. In Week 15, they host the Buffalo Bills (10-3) and if the Lions want to continue their hot streak, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 15 Preview: Breaking down Bills’ offensive and defensive schemes.
The Lions will always prioritize establishing the run, but it will be especially important in this game as they attempt to control the clock and keep the Bills’ offense on the sidelines. While they’re coming off a “good” performance on the ground against the Packers, it was not up to their standards, according to Lions running backs coach and assistant head coach Scottie Montgomery.
“It is a standard,” Montgomery said on Wednesday. “A lot of people would say, ‘Man, you guys got 100 yards, good.’ But good is the enemy of great, and around here our standard is great. We magnify the things we don’t quite do as well as we would like, and that’s why we are great. And that’s why the O-line is where they are, but we need to be better this week.”
Montgomery went on to discuss how the run game connected to every part of their offense and the team has buckled down to make sure they get back to their standard this week against the Bills.
On paper, the Bills are a bit up and down. They perform very high in some areas while struggling in others, despite having adjacent stats. To elaborate a bit further, here is an excerpt from our Bills scheme breakdown:
For example, they are the top team in the NFL in “stuffed rate,” meaning they stop runs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 23.6% of run plays. Yet, running backs average 1.62 yards before contact (23rd) and 3.11 yards after contact (22nd). Buffalo has given up 49 rushes of 10+ yards (26th) and allow 4.7 yards per carry (26th). Essentially, what this shows is that unless the defensive line is stuffing the run at the line of scrimmage, they are often susceptible to explosive plays on the ground.
The Bills hit-and-miss run defense starts with their play design, as they live in subpackages, nearly 100% of the time. As a result, their base defense deploys four down defensive linemen, two off-the-ball linebackers, and will often drop a nickel corner in the box as a seventh defender. They only bring an eighth defender (typically a safety) into the box 7% of the time, the lowest percentage in the NFL.
These light boxes create opportunities for strong...
