The Eagles Should Have Kicked the Extra Point

The Birds were losing 24-9 on Friday evening and scored a late touchdown to make it 24-15. They could have kicked an extra point to make it an eight-point game, 24 to 16, but decided to go for two and failed, resulting in a nine-point deficit with 3:00 left on the clock and all three timeouts remaining.

There’s been a lot of arguing about this decision. They needed to hit a two-point conversion at some point, no matter what, so it was either try now to cut the lead to seven, or kick, cut the lead to eight, get the ball back, score, and then try it after the second TD.

Bill Barnwell said:

“Can’t believe we’re still doing this, but going for two on the first touchdown down 15 isn’t “analytics”. The numbers don’t change at all. It’s information. Fail on the two-pointer and you’re probably screwed either way regardless of when you take it. Choose to go for two on the first one and even if you fail, you’ve at least got hope to get an extra possession with an onside kick, as the Cowboys did in 2020 (https://youtube.com/watch?v=Y2bu5qENekY) Delaying the tough decision until the second TD and failing means you have absolutely no hope. It’s just delaying the risk.”

Recovering an onside kick is super-rare in 2025. It’s really difficult to factor it in considering how low the odds are now. And these explanations never take momentum into account. Momentum is absolutely real. Anybody who has played a sport at any level knows this.

Here’s the scenario laid out if the Eagles kick the XP first:

• Bears are up multiple scores and think they’ve got a win in the bag
• they go soft and give up a relatively-easy touchdown
• score is now 24-15
• Eagles kick extra point
• score is now 24-16
• Birds kick the ball off
• Bears get the ball back with three minutes on the clock, Eagles have all three timeouts and two-minute warning
• Birds defense comes out with some juice, knowing they can get a stop and get the ball back
• if the Eagles do indeed score again, they go for 2 against a reeling Bears defense that just gave up two TDs in two possessions, and if they convert, they go into overtime with momentum

If we’re playing the “feel” angle, then there absolutely is value on extending the game and making the Bears sweat it out. Give your defense something to play for. Bring the remaining crowd back into it.

Instead, the defense took the field down nine, ball at the Philly 47. They needed a stop, a score, onside kick, and field goal, at the very least. They took the risk early, failed, and it was basically over at that point. Everybody knew it.

(also, the two-point play call sucked and likely would have sucked on the second TD anyway)

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