Windy City Gridiron
In order to build a solid defense, teams need to invest resources where they matter most. However, there are very stark differences in talent levels available late in the draft at different positions.
The one underlying assumption made in prior versions of the Draft Research Project was that NFL teams made players earn starts and field time. Thus starts and games are used as a surrogate for the quality of the player, with Pro Bowl status (and being 1st-Team All Pro) used as a crosscheck for higher levels of quality. On offense, it makes a certain amount of sense to track production (yards from scrimmage and touchdowns), but on defense there needs to be an easily-understood way of tracking a lack of production. This is especially true because on defense, many high-level players participate as part of a rotation without starting.
Ultimately, the goal of the defense is to stop the other side from scoring. Therefore, at least for now, the Draft Research Project is going to measure defensive impact with the use of a term I call Defensive Victory on Down, or DVD. If the defender creates a sack, a tackle for a loss, or defends a pass then that defender has conclusively won the down for the defense. There’s no quibbling over stopping the expected number of yards. It’s just a win. In many ways, this is a simpler version of the type of stat used by Football Outsiders in their creation of the defeat.
How common are DVDs? The median defender drafted produced 14 over the course of the first five years of his career. The median produced by a “regular starter” on defense in those five years is 52.5 (the number produced by Akiem Hicks). Barely more than ten per season is normal for an average “starting” player.
Edge defenders dominate, with the Watt brothers turning in 251.5 (J.J.) and 184 (T.J.), the two highest totals of all 1277 players in the study. Aaron Donald (165.5) and DeForest Buckner (119) take the lead for interior Defensive Linemen. Lavonte David (138) and Roquan Smith (95.5) are the two most successful off-the-ball linebackers. Jamal Adams (97.5) and Richard Sherman (83) are the highest-achieving defensive backs.
While this one measure cannot capture everything a defensive player does, it does help capture in broad strokes the impact of these players without ignoring too much of the context of their position.
Edge Defenders: No position absorbs more first-round picks per “spot” on the field in the NFL Draft than Edges. While the default is two players per side, teams spent 48 first-round picks on Edges in these ten years, or nearly five per year. That’s more than any of the offensive skills positions (even though teams probably need three receivers), and while it comes in under the 61 picks spent on offensive linemen, there are five spots on the O-line to fill. Only 27 of these selections will end...
