Blogging The Boys
It’s a widely held belief that the Cowboys are not great starters. And at first glance, the numbers seem to bear that out: last year, the Cowboys had four games (24%) in which they failed to score a single point in the first quarter, and scored no more than a field goal in the first quarter in 10 out of 17 games (59%).
Those numbers sound alarming. They really aren’t. Last year, NFL teams went scoreless in the opening quarter 32% of the time and scored no more than a field goal in 52% of first quarters.
The Cowboys weren’t unusually bad in the first quarter last season. In fact, by league standards they were around average.
The Cowboys weren’t unusually bad in the first quarter last season. In fact, by league standards they were around average. The real issue was that those points rarely translated into an early lead.
Here’s the winning percentage, by quarter, of teams that held the lead at the end of each respective quarter last year (numbers don’t add up to 272 games because some games were tied at the end of a quarter).
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 4px 6px !important; } NFL win probability when in the lead, by quarter, 2025 1. Quarter2. Quarter3. QuarterW/L148 – 63 – 1160 – 71 – 1158 – 62in %70%70%72%Last year, teams leading after the first quarter won 70% of the time. Remarkably, that percentage barely changed as the game progressed. There’s no question that jumping out to an early lead can be a major advantage.
Playing with the lead changes the game on both offense and defense. Teams playing from behind are forced to take more risks, creating mistakes that teams with the lead are then able to exploit. Playing with the lead changes the game, so let’s look at how the Cowboys have done in this department, and try to figure out what’s behind it.
And we’ll start by contrasting the 2025 team with the three 12-5 teams from 2021-23.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 4px 6px !important; } Cowboys record based on scores after Q1 Leading after Q1Trailing after Q1Game tiedCowboys 2021-2327-27-92-4Cowboys 20252-14-4-11-4The difference is striking: where the 12-5 teams averaged almost 10 games per season in which they held a lead after the first quarter, the 2025 team had just three. The winning percentage when trailing or with the game tied after the first quarter for the 2025 team is 39%, that of the three 12-5 teams is only marginally better at 41%.
So, the issue for the 2025 teams was not so much about catching up, but about not being able to jump out to an early lead. And there are multiple reasons for that.
The...
