Stampede Blue
Because of early season struggles, the Colts have zero margin for error.
Here we go again.
The Indianapolis Colts have been following this script for so many years. Start the season out slowly and then turn on the jets to have a shot at the postseason. These self-inflicted wounds create an incredible highwire balancing act that leaves zero margin for error. One loss out of the last four games would surely spell doom and the end of any postseason aspirations.
When you are below .500 with four games to go and you have experienced a three game losing streak at any point in the season, making it into the playoffs is a long shot. The best chance is one of three things: a weak division with no clear leader, a soft ending schedule, and/or a large group of teams clustered around each other with similar records vying for the last few spots. Luckily for the Colts, they have a few of those things going for them.
I think at this point, the division is lost. The disparity in record and tie breaker situation for all accounts and purposes puts this one to bed. The Colts have two major things working for them after that. They face a huge test on Sunday against the Broncos. Win that game and while they won’t be in the driver’s seat, they will be much closer to having a say in their own fate. After that, the schedule gets incredibly easy. Their final three opponents are a combined 8-31, and two of those games are played at home. A win in Denver could very well put the Colts at 10-7 on the year. That may not ultimately be enough, but it certainly could be.
The problem with a 10-7 record is that three other teams have a head start on them for the Wild Card. The Ravens, Chargers, and aforementioned Broncos all sit at 8-5. It is too early to get into all the tie breaking scenarios, but at least one of those teams would have to do no better than a 2-2 split for the Colts to have a chance. Adding one of those losses directly to the Broncos is the Colts’ best path. With a tight cluster like that, it gives the Colts plenty of options. The issue now is, have they waited too long to strike? Is the hole too deep to climb out of? While there is a chance, it is extremely steep, and it won’t be easy.
The Colts don’t have anyone to blame but themselves. You simply cannot fall so far behind other teams in your division or conference and expect an easy path to the playoffs. I don’t think most fans will be heartbroken if this team didn’t reach the postseason, but it is still always the goal in some form. There is a chance, but that chance is narrowing. Win on Sunday and they might just have enough wiggle room to squeeze through.
