The Christian Watson extension is the right number at the right time

The Christian Watson extension is the right number at the right time
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Yesterday, the Green Bay Packers reportedly agreed to a one-year, $13.25 million contract extension with wide receiver Christian Watson. It’s an interesting move from the team, because you seldom see players sign extensions while on the physically unable to perform list. Remember, Watson is still rehabbing from his 2024 ACL tear, though his father has stated that the receiver is already running 22 MPH. Officially, Watson can return to practice beginning in Week 6, following the Packers’ bye week.

This contract makes a lot of sense for both sides. On Watson’s end, he probably would like some sort of assurances that he will receive big money in his NFL career. Timing is everything in the NFL. Most of the money veteran players make is on their second contracts in the league. Unfortunately for Watson, he’s injured going into a contract year. Taking an extension, even without having the full leverage of health, means that he can at least bring home an extra $13.25 million, which is more than $4 million more than his four-year rookie contract combined. If he gets hurt again in 2025, who knows what his market would look like?

On the Packers’ end, this is well below market value for a full-time starting receiver like Watson, when he’s healthy. For perspective, the Detroit Lions’ Jameson Williams, who has posted similar stats to Watson to date in a similar field-stretching role, inked a three-year contract that pays him out $27.7 million in new money, more than twice what Watson will get for his extra year in Green Bay.

With the addition of Williams, there are now 24 veteran NFL receivers who are making at least $20 million per year. For perspective, there are only six wide receivers on non-rookie contracts under the age of 28 (think second-contract players) who make between $5 million and $20 million per year. Yes, the gulf is wide. Usually, this is more of the range of a declining star than the range for a young pass-catcher that a team plans to play like a number 1 or 2 receiver.

In this $5 million to $20 million range, Watson’s comparables are Jerry Jeudy, Khalil Shakir, Rashod Bateman, Tutu Atwell, Dyami Brown and Josh Palmer. Jeudy has averaged 856 yards per season over his career (excluding 2025) and was traded for a fifth- and sixth-round pick last year. Bateman is at 481. Shakir is Buffalo’s third receiver and has averaged 531 yards. Atwell has averaged 448 in his career. Brown is at 196. Palmer has posted 572.

So if you have sticker shock, just know this is a good number for Watson, who averages 551 per season and averages 740 over 17 games. This is just the cost of business in the NFL, with the league’s salary cap going up about $25 million per year. In fact, if Watson does “prove it” in 2026 and stays healthy over the next two seasons, he’s likely to get money closer to what Williams received ($28 million per...