The Chiefs’ playoff picture: Kansas City gets some help in Week 12 [UPDATED]

Let’s see how Kansas City’s postseason possibilities line up after Week 13’s NFL action.

The Kansas City Chiefs now stand 11-1 after collecting a 19-17 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

Five weeks remain in the 2024 NFL season, in which Kansas City will host their second division games against the Los Angeles Chargers, play the Cleveland Browns in Ohio, face the Houston Texans at home and finish the season on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Broncos.

Let’s take a look at the team’s current playoff picture. As we always do, we’ll use the New York Times playoff calculator to help us figure out what to expect. More details about how it works are included at the end of the article.

The Chiefs’ playoff picture

As it stands right now, Kansas City has clinched a playoff berth, has a 94% chance to win the AFC West (up from 92% a week ago), a 47% chance to win the single AFC bye (down from 52%) and a 10% chance to win Super Bowl LIX (down from 11%). In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills now have the best chance to win the Super Bowl (19%). In the NFC, the Detroit Lions (24%) have the best chance.

These changes in Kansas City’s playoff outlook happened because in Week 13, the Chiefs defeated the Raiders, the Green Bay Packers beat the Miami Dolphins, the Bills beat the San Francisco 49ers, the Steelers knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals, the Chargers beat the Atlanta Falcons and the Broncos beat the Browns. Other than Kansas City’s win over Las Vegas and Miami’s loss to Green Bay, none of these results improved the Chiefs’ postseason prospects.

The playoff calculator allows us to manipulate the outcomes of any remaining games to see how it changes things.

How the Chiefs can make the playoffs

We can check this one off. With the Dolphins’ loss and their victory over the Raiders, the Chiefs clinched a playoff berth for the 10th consecutive season.

How the Chiefs can win the AFC West

With a win over the 8-4 Chargers on Sunday, the Chiefs will lock up their ninth consecutive division title. But if Kansas City loses, it can still win the West by winning the next three games — or any two of the final four with at least one Chargers loss. Here’s the worst-case scenario: Los Angeles wins out against the Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Broncos, New England Patriots and Raiders. In that case, Kansas City could still squeak through by beating the Browns or Steelers — but in that scenario, they would have to win the Week 18 game in Denver. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

How the Chiefs can get a first-round bye

Kansas City still controls its own destiny for the top seed. Winning its last five matchups will get it done.

The most serious contenders for the No. 1 spot (and the bye week that comes with it) are...