The case for Sam Darnold as a top 10 quarterback

The case for Sam Darnold as a top 10 quarterback
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If you spend anytime online watching or listening to national analysts ranking and explaining quarterback rankings, you will probably have noted that where to putSeattle Seahawks starting quarterback Sam Darnold is a mixed bag. He is sometimes put in the top 10 quarterbacks, and is usually between seven to 10, like on NFL.com, but that is the minority. More often than not, he is ranked between 12 to 20 like on ESPN. Per Gregg Rosenthal, he is the 13th ranked quarterback. With such a disparity in where to place the Super Bowl winning quarterback, the question remains: is Darnold a top 10 quarterback? That is what we will try to answer today.

The Analytics

There is no doubting that the beginning of Sam Darnold’s career was a rocky one. Drafted by the New York Jets, he was tasked with running the Peyton Manning-style offense with Adam Gase, which is similar to giving a college textbook to a middle school student and ask them to fully comprehend it. Needless to say, there would be bumps along the road. He averaged around 2,700 passing yards, 13 interceptions and 15 touchdowns a season, with an average completion rate of 59.8% and a passer rating of 78.63 in his three-year stint with the Jets. That is not good, especially being the third overall pick in the 2018 draft.

In his next stop with the Carolina Panthers, Matt Rhule tried to implement his college offense with Darnold under center. Any Seahawk fans remembering the Ryan Grubb offense in 2024, or watching the Chip Kelly offense with the Las Vegas Raiders last season, can tell you that college offenses do not work out all that well in the NFL. Darnold started 12 games in his first year with the Panthers, and six games the next season. He threw for a total of 3670 yards, 15 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, with a completion percentage of 59.5% and a passer rating of 76.64. He seemed to be regressing, and most of the national media seemingly gave up on Sam Darnold.

Those were the statistics from his first two NFL stints, and he spent a year being the backup to Brock Purdy with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. He finally got his opportunity to start again with the Vikings, then got a long term contract with the Seahawks in 2025. These last two seasons, Darnold led his teams to 14-3 regular seasons, the only quarterback to do so in back to back seasons while playing for two different teams. He also became the first University of Southern California quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.

There is no doubting that the last two seasons have been good for Darnold, but does his performance elevate him to a top ten quarterback? To answer this question, I took a look at 34 starting quarterbacks the last two seasons. I looked at their stats, specifically at their passing yards, attempts, completions, completion percentage, touchdowns, and interceptions. From that, I used [Pro...