Acme Packing Company
So much volatility at the top!
Week 11 is over, and for your abacus-based power rankings, Peter has you covered somewhere on this site, but over on this side we’re trying something a little different. We’re using top-of-the-line AI (quickly switches tabs to hide Excel) to generate objective rankings. Power rankings are all about arguing about why they’re wrong, and it’s one thing to be subjectively wrong like Peter, and it’s quite another to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the rankings week by week here.
Also, someone in the comments last week asked why I don’t publish the exact formula I use, and there are two major reasons. The first is that it’s laughably simple. Like, there’s really not a ton going on here. But the bigger reason is that I use some proprietary metrics from PFF and FTN, and I don’t want to publish enough information to allow readers to reverse-engineer something that those sites actually charge money for. They put a lot of effort into their metrics and they don’t need a dope like me re-publishing them on the side. I also think most of you can figure out what’s going on, at least in general.
This week, most major risers AND fallers rest in the top six, with Buffalo passing Baltimore, and Philly shooting by San Francisco. Let’s get to it!
1. Detroit Lions: CALCULATOR Score: 156.31, Change from last week, 23.91 – Detroit beat the Jaguars 52-6 in the third best individual game by DVOA of all time. Combined with losses by the Chiefs and Ravens, the Lions pitched a clean sweep in point differential, DVOA, EPA, PFF grade, Super Bowl odds, everything. The Lions are the most dominant, most complete team in the league, and at this point, the Super Bowl favorites. The Lions were the biggest risers of the week and had one of the biggest jumps of any team this year.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 118.14, -9.41 – The Chiefs hold on to second mostly because bettors and PFF still love them, but they’re still behind the Packers in EPA, and they haven’t played a truly impressive game since Week 7 against San Francisco. Mahomes, Love, and Geno Smith lead the league in picks with 11, and Mahomes has the lowest Y/C and ANY/A of the three. It’s difficult to ever have the Chiefs on fraud watch because Mahomes is such a transcendent talent, and it’s entirely possible that once the playoffs roll around, they just snap into greatness, but…worth keeping an eye on.
3. Buffalo Bills: 109.67, 8.56 –...
