Blogging The Boys
What is it that they say about assuming?
Jumping to conclusions is a dangerous game. We have all done it, and we all will again, but declaring anything to be this or that has burned us all in the past. Sometimes that’s the way things go.
When these things work out we feel like geniuses. We knew it all along! No one could have ever predicted what we did!
But when we are incorrect… well, that isn’t a very fun feeling.
This is more about the latter.
What would you say is an assumption you have about the Dallas Cowboys that is likely to be wrong? I understand that this is a weird question, but it is important to consider so we can establish a practical range of outcomes.
For my two cents, regression to the mean is a very real thing. We tend to only think of this in way that benefits us naturally, so along those lines it is easy to believe that the team’s defense will improve because it will bounce back.
Unfortunately that bounce goes both ways, and I’d simply caution against assuming that the Cowboys offense is going to be stellar in 2026 just because it was in 2025. Sectors of football teams aren’t like old VHS tapes where they remained paused where the movie was at when you took them out of the VCR. Every element of the team has to start over.
Now what makes this assumption blowing up in our faces less likely is that there is strong precedent for the Cowboys offense in recent history. Dak Prescott finished second in MVP voting in 2023 and that was easily CeeDee Lamb’s greatest season with the team. That now head coach and offensive play-caller Brian Schottenheimer was a part of the team then as well is another common denominator in that sense.
The Cowboys offense has been rather prolific for most of the Dak Prescott era, in fact. For the most part, this offense has been “good enough” for most of the time from 2018 (after the Amari Cooper trade) to this point. There have been holes in that time, but you get the point.
So maybe the assumption will hold and not actually be proven wrong. Perhaps there is another that is more likely to be incorrect.
What do you think that one is?
