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It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…
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In the middle of the ‘24 season, fans and sports writers frequently referred to the $100m in 2025 cap space that the Commanders were estimated to have available for 2025. The number got repeated so often that it became ‘gospel’, and is still quoted today, though the figure is now badly outdated.
As happens to every NFL team every season, expected available cap space shrinks in December and January as injury replacements are signed and player bonus targets are hit, paying players hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of dollars in bonus money not previously included in cap estimates.
Less than a week ago, Over the Cap estimated Washington’s available cap space to be $87.5m for 2025, but, as always, that number is not written in dried concrete.
Yesterday, the number had dropped to $78.1m as factors like player bonuses and future contracts were factored in. And the estimated available cap space will continue to be updated as new data is incorporated between now and the start of the new league year in mid-March.
Still, $78.1m is the third-highest amount of cap space in the NFL per OTC. Only the Patriots and Raiders are estimated to have more.
There’s a major caveat to be aware of when discussing Commanders cap space, however. Washington has the 2nd-fewest players under contract among the NFL’s 32 teams in OTC’s calculations.
The chart below is sorted by roster size for players under contract for 2025. You’ll see that the Chiefs have 38 players; the Commanders have 43 players, and the rest of the teams have at least 45 players under contract for next season.
The two teams ahead of Washington in cap space — New England and Las Vegas — have 55 and 54 players, respectively. The team right behind the Commanders in cap space — the Cardinals at $71.3m — have 60 players under contract.
For an apple-to-apples comparison of available cap space, it is useful to adjust each team’s roster to the top-51 contracts that will count towards the salary cap during the offseason.
Over the Cap actually does this work for us. OTC calculates a separate figure, Effective Cap Space, which OTC says is the cap space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class to its roster. My experience tells me that this working number from OTC tends to be $2m to $4m overestimated (for example, last week, when the Commanders had 34 players under contract, OTC’s Effective Cap...
