Niners Nation
The San Francisco 49ers have gotten off to a 9-4 record as they approach the bye week, pulling off three consecutive victories to get within a half-game of the NFC West lead.
It’s been a weird year in San Francisco. They’ve dealt with serious injuries to top starters, resurrected another quarterback’s career, and have still started out as one of the NFL’s best teams in a crowded NFC.
Defensively, the 49ers have managed without stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, which has forced defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to figure out how to balance game plans with a struggling pass rush.
The 49ers defense has definitely been weird this year when you look at the numbers. They’re 20th in yards allowed per game (335.8). They’re 22nd in yards per play. So they allow teams to drive. They don’t get much pressure (dead last in sack rate). They’re slightly above average/middle-of-the-pack against the run (12th in rush yards allowed, 14th in yards per carry allowed), though it’s popped up as a problem in some games. They’re also 25th against the pass.
Usually, when teams give up a ton of yards but are still a quality enough defense, they’re good in the red zone. But the 49ers are still middle-of-the-pack there. They’re 15th in red zone attempts per game (3.2). They’re 16th in red zone touchdown rate (56.1 percent). So, teams score on them at an average rate.
But, the 49ers are the eighth-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 20.7 points per game. So, where is the success coming from?
Well, a part of it is luck. San Francisco’s opponents have the second-worst field goal rate in the NFL (66.7 percent). The other part of it is a much-improved special teams unit.
Through the first 12 games of the season, the 49ers were the No. 2 team in special teams EPA per play, according to ESPN’s Nick Wagoner, far better than their last place through that stretch in 2024.
But, a ton of that was success on the offensive side of the ball. The team ranks 28th in opponent average field position after a kickoff and 29th in opponent average punt returns. It’s an anomaly.
The other part is discipline. The 49ers are the second-least penalized team in the NFL after being in the middle of the pack in 2024.
Still, it’s not like the 49ers are stopping teams at an elite rate on third downs. They rank 18th in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate, although that is at a 38.5 percent clip. Teams also get first downs at a good rate against San Francisco, which ranks 20th in the NFL in that category as well.
They also don’t take the ball away, ranking 22nd in the NFL with just 1.1 per game.
That tells me that San Francisco has a knack for just making plays in big moments that take away points in big swings, which we’ve seen several times this season. How sustainable is that? I’m not...
