Niners Nation
There’s the obvious connection between head coaches, but the 49ers and Dolphins have plenty of parallels on the field, too.
Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers will head to Miami to meet with their old friend Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. In 2021, after a successful tenure as the 49ers' run game coordinator and offensive coordinator, Miami hired McDaniel as head coach to help usher in a new era of Dolphin football.
Since the two friends parted ways, both coaches have led their teams to the playoffs in 2022 & 2023. Unfortunately, both team’s seasons ended at the hands of the Chiefs in 2023. In 2024, the parallels continue in more ways than one. Both teams have sustained impact injuries this season and fallen short of expectations. Both teams come into the game with a 6-8 record and their playoff chances on life support. The similarities don’t stop there.
Here are some things to watch for on Sunday in Miami.
Personnel tendencies
It’s no secret that McDaniel and Shanahan collaborated on different wrinkles of the 49ers offense, particularly in the run game. Creating angles and gaining box advantages were the bread and butter for the duo.
In their third season since McDaniel’s hiring in Miami, both offenses mirror each other in personnel usage.
The 49ers have run a total of 832 plays to Miami’s 893. The 49ers and Dolphins rank 28th and 30th, respectively, in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WR) usage.
League Average - 60.6% rate & 0.01 Expected Points Added
San Francisco - 384 plays, 46.2% rate, -0.02 Expected Points Added (14th), -0.06 EPA/Pass, 0.05 EPA/Rush, 62.2% Pass Rate
Miami - 356 plays, 39.9% rate, 0 Expected Points Added (13th), -0.04 EPA/Pass, 0.1 EPA/Rush, 71.9% Pass Rate
Both teams lead the NFL in 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR), with 36.9% for San Francisco (1st) and 29.1% for Miami (2nd).
League Average - 6.3% rate & 0.03 Expected Points Added
San Francisco - 307 plays, 0.15 Expected Points Added (8th), 0.34 EPA/Pass, 0 EPA/Rush, 44% Pass Rate
Miami - 260 plays, -0.08 Expected Points Added (17th), 0.16 EPA/Pass, -0.26 EPA/Rush, 40% Pass Rate
The two offenses buck the NFL trends for personnel tendencies and are committed to their offensive philosophies.
Red Zone Regression
Last season, Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert were touchdown machines. McCaffrey dealt with Achilles tendinitis before suffering a season-ending PCL injury in Buffalo. Meanwhile, Mostert has dealt with some injuries, but Miami has prioritized De’Von Achane’s playing time over Mostert, regardless of health.
In 2023, San Francisco ranked first in red zone touchdown percentage, at 68%, with Miami third at 65.52%. High red zone production was bound to regress to the mean, but both offenses fell far from the top of the NFL in 2024.
Miami has fallen from third to 12th in the NFL at 58.14%, and the 49ers have plummeted from first to 23rd at 52.94%. San Francisco averages 3.6 red zone trips per game (10th), and...
