Windy City Gridiron
If the season ended right now, the Bears would make the playoffs for the first time since 2018. However, something else interesting would happen for the first time in even longer. The Bears would draft in the second half of the first round. The last time that happened, 2013, Phil Emery picked Kyle Long at #20. Star Wars only had six movies back then, the “new” Superman was Henry Cavill, and all of the Stark children were still alive. Caleb Williams was eleven.
It’s been a minute.
Since then, in the first round Chicago has drafted 14th, 7th, 9th, 2nd, 8th, 11th, 10th, 1st, 9th, and 10th. They have also missed having picks in the first round on three occasions due to various trades.
If the scope of how unfamiliar this territory would be for Chicago fans is still unclear, it’s worth pointing out that Gabe Carimi is one of only two players the Bears have drafted in the first round after a playoff run since losing to Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl, and the other is Justin Fields–who was drafted after an 8-8 season but only after Chicago traded up to #11.
Consequently, it’s worth exploring what exactly draft picks look like in the later stages of Day One.
In the fifteen years since the modern CBA went into effect, the players taken 21-32 in the first round include 33 offensive linemen, 28 edge defenders, 27 cornerbacks, 26 wide receivers, 17 interior defensive linemen, and 15 off-ball linebackers–plus smaller samples of the other roles. However, those six positions are the ones that average at least one selection per year. The split skews about 55% toward the defense, and three teams (the Ravens, the Packers, and the Vikings) are tied at first for having made 13 selections each in this range.
Offensive Linemen
Of the 22 offensive linemen in the Draft Research Project who were taken in the first round but after #20, more than half played a substantial portion of their snaps at tackle, and the median player in this group started 63 games of the first 80 that were available. Only two of these players made the Pro Bowl in their first five years, but the rest didn’t just make rosters. They played, and they played a lot.
This seems to be where high-performing teams find reliable help up front. It is not true that only a guard will be found here. Instead, it’s true that offensive linemen found here will likely be able to play up and down the line.
Edge Defenders
A median-level performer for edge defenders in this group found in the Draft Research Project (n=14) would play in 63 games but only start 25 of them. His average season in his first five years in the league would see a single defended pass, 3.5 sacks, and 5 TFLs. Think of a slightly less productive Nick Perry or a slightly more productive Charles Harris, not Leonard Floyd (whose...
