Windy City Gridiron
Will the third year running back find a place offensively?
It’s time to kick off our series of the 10 Chicago Bears with the most to prove. We’ve reviewed the 2024 list, and unfortunately, most of the 2024 list didn’t end up on the right side of the list, which certainly contributed to their 5-12 season.
The 2025 list is here. There are a few names that have returned and are on the 2025 list, but there are plenty of new names on the list as well. One of those new names is number ten on the list, running back Roschon Johnson.
When Johnson was drafted in the fourth round of the 2023 draft, personally, I was ecstatic. I loved Johnson and thought he was one of the top 3 or 4 running backs in the draft class, despite being behind Bijan Robinson at Texas.
I didn’t expect Johnson to rip the starting spot away from the veterans and become RB1 by week one, but I did think Johnson would be part of the rotation and work his way into RB1 status by the middle of his rookie season.
Johnson never emerged like that during his rookie season. Johnson flashed some nice skills, but never even had a game where he ran for 40 yards. Johnson was the team’s RB3 that year behind Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman and proved he was a useful player, but would he be a difference maker?
After Johnson’s rookie season, I was no longer confident he had RB1 abilities, especially do to his lack of acceleration and burst through the hole, but I did think Johnson could develop into a solid RB2 who largely ran in between the tackles.
Johnson was technically the team’s RB2 in 2024, but he ran for just 150 yards at just 2.7 yards a carry. But Johnson’s success rate is what is interesting.
Briefly on success rate. Success rate is a running back that runs for 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% of the yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% of the yards needed on third or fourth down.
Success rate isn’t a perfect stat, but it does give you an idea of how often a running back is making a positive impact. A running back that gains a half yard on 3rd and inches, had a successful run. A running back that ran for 11 yards on 2nd and 20 after a holding penalty, is technically an unsuccessful run because 12 yards would have been considered 60% of the yards needed.
Ideally, you want your running back to have a success rate over 50% (the league average in 2024 was 49.6%). For example, Saquon Barkley’s success rate last year in Philadelphia was 52.5%. Derrick Henry had a 58.8% success rate in Baltimore last year.
In Chicago, D’Andre Swift had a 43.9% success rate, but Roschon Johnson? With his paltry 2.7 yards per carry, had a successful run 56.4% of the time. That rate would...
